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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Charlton run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Exeter City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charlton beat Exeter City 3-0 at The Valley, Regular Season - 33, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.34 xG and Exeter City 0.71 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Charlton beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.96 / defence 0.72 against Exeter City attack 0.82 / defence 1.09, drawn from 77/76 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charlton 52% | Draw 29% | Exeter City 19%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 49%, Exeter City 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charlton's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Exeter City's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charlton 1.32 PPG, Exeter City 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Exeter City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights