🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Charlton (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Charlton face Exeter City.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 33 as Charlton welcome Exeter City to The Valley. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 February 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Charlton — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Charlton's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at The Valley this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Valley.

Across all League One games this season, Exeter City have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

When travelling in League One this season, Exeter City have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Charlton carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Charlton, 1 for Exeter City and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Exeter City winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Charlton in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).

Exeter City in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 63% versus Exeter City 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 49% | Exeter City 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.34 xG and Exeter City 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.960 / defence 0.720 | Exeter City attack 0.825 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.190. Charlton's defence rating of 0.720 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 77 Charlton games / 76 Exeter City games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Charlton 52% | Draw 29% | Exeter City 19%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Exeter City 5.26. Charlton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 50% | Exeter City 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights