Charlton 3-2 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Charlton at 60% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Burton Albion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charlton host Burton Albion at The Valley in League One, Regular Season - 41. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 10 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Charlton — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at The Valley, Charlton have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, Burton Albion have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Burton Albion have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Burton Albion — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Charlton, 0 for Burton Albion and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Charlton trading profile (84 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Burton Albion trading profile (84 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 54% versus Burton Albion 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 45% | Burton Albion 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 2.17 xG and Burton Albion 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.241 / defence 1.029 | Burton Albion attack 1.028 / defence 1.312. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.096. Burton Albion bring a strong defensive rating of 1.312 — this is suppressing Charlton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 86 Charlton games / 84 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 60% | Draw 20% | Burton Albion 19%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 1.67 | Draw 5.00 | Burton Albion 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Charlton (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Charlton dominate the H2H record, yet Burton Albion are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Burton Albion (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 70% | Burton Albion 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 60% | Draw 20% | Burton Albion 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 61% | xG Charlton 2.17 / Burton Albion 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.241 / def 1.029 | Burton Albion attack 1.028 / def 1.312 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Charlton (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Burton Albion xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Burton Albion kick off?
Charlton vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 10 April 2023 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Burton Albion?
Charlton 3 - 2 Burton Albion.
Where is Charlton vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Burton Albion part of?
Charlton vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 60% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Charlton and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Burton Albion?
Record (3 meetings): Charlton 2W | Draws 1 | Burton Albion 0W.
What form are Charlton and Burton Albion in?
Charlton (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Burton Albion (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Charlton's attack at 1.24x the league average against Burton Albion's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 86/84 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
60%
1.66
20%
4.89
19%
5.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Charlton xG
Total xG
3.33
1.16
Burton Albion xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
5.19
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
11%
8.80
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
2%
45.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Charlton and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Charlton and 1.16 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Burton Albion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charlton come into this having played 84 games, going 30W 20D 34L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Burton Albion sit at 1.17 PPG from 84 outings (26W 20D 38L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.31 PPG, Burton Albion on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Charlton's home form reads 17W 10D 15L across 42 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Burton Albion have taken 0.86 points per game from 42 outings (9W 9D 24L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charlton are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.19 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 84 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 30W 20D 34L in their last 84 games (1.31 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 26W 20D 38L in their last 84 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Burton Albion away?
Charlton's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.45 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charlton and Burton Albion runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charlton go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Charlton's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Charlton
2
Draws
1
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Burton Albion?
From 8 meetings on record, Charlton have won 5, Burton Albion have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Charlton 3-1 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Burton Albion?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 50%, Burton Albion 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Charlton) and 57% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Burton Albion in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Charlton's recent matches and 55% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Charlton's recent games and 57% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out Burton Albion 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Burton Albion 3-2 at The Valley, Regular Season - 41, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 2.17 xG and Burton Albion 1.16 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Charlton beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Burton Albion outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.24 / defence 1.03 against Burton Albion attack 1.03 / defence 1.31, drawn from 86/84 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 60% | Draw 20% | Burton Albion 19%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 45%, Burton Albion 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (84 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Burton Albion's trading profile (84 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.31 PPG, Burton Albion 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.02 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.