Sheffield Wednesday 3-0 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sheffield Wednesday at 76% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sheffield Wednesday vs Accrington ST encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sheffield Wednesday and Accrington ST meet at Hillsborough in League One, Regular Season - 41. This fixture gets under way on Monday 10 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sheffield Wednesday's overall League One record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sheffield Wednesday's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Hillsborough this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Hillsborough. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Sheffield Wednesday are significantly better at Hillsborough than their overall form suggests.
Accrington ST (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in League One this season, Accrington ST have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Sheffield Wednesday's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Accrington ST's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Sheffield Wednesday have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Accrington ST in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Sheffield Wednesday, 0 for Accrington ST and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 1–0 with Sheffield Wednesday winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Sheffield Wednesday half-time and goal-timing data (85 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Accrington ST half-time and goal-timing data (85 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sheffield Wednesday 48% versus Accrington ST 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sheffield Wednesday 42% | Accrington ST 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sheffield Wednesday 2.18 xG and Accrington ST 0.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.291 / defence 0.741 | Accrington ST attack 0.617 / defence 1.263. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.096. Sheffield Wednesday carry an above-average attack strength of 1.291 — their λ of 2.18 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Accrington ST bring a strong defensive rating of 1.263 — this is suppressing Sheffield Wednesday's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sheffield Wednesday's defence rating of 0.741 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 86 Sheffield Wednesday games / 85 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 76% | Draw 17% | Accrington ST 7%. Fair-value odds: Sheffield Wednesday 1.32 | Draw 5.88 | Accrington ST 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Sheffield Wednesday (76%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Accrington ST's lower xG of 0.50 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sheffield Wednesday at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sheffield Wednesday 30% | Accrington ST 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sheffield Wednesday vs Accrington ST | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: Hillsborough • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 76% | Draw 17% | Accrington ST 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 35% | xG Sheffield Wednesday 2.18 / Accrington ST 0.50 • Poisson strength factors: Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.291 / def 0.741 | Accrington ST attack 0.617 / def 1.263 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Sheffield Wednesday (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Expected Goals
0.50
Accrington ST xG
35%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sheffield Wednesday vs Accrington ST kick off?
Sheffield Wednesday vs Accrington ST kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 10 April 2023 at Hillsborough.
What was the final score in Sheffield Wednesday vs Accrington ST?
Sheffield Wednesday 3 - 0 Accrington ST.
Where is Sheffield Wednesday vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at Hillsborough.
What competition is Sheffield Wednesday vs Accrington ST part of?
Sheffield Wednesday vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Sheffield Wednesday vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Sheffield Wednesday a 76% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 7% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Sheffield Wednesday the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sheffield Wednesday vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Sheffield Wednesday and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Sheffield Wednesday vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Wednesday and Accrington ST?
Record (3 meetings): Sheffield Wednesday 2W | Draws 1 | Accrington ST 0W.
What form are Sheffield Wednesday and Accrington ST in?
Sheffield Wednesday (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Accrington ST (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sheffield Wednesday's attack rating (1.29) and Accrington ST's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 2.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Accrington ST's attack (0.62x) against Sheffield Wednesday's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.50.
These ratings are built from 86/85 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.0%), 3-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Wednesday Win
76%
1.31
17%
5.89
7%
14.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
3 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Total xG
2.68
0.50
Accrington ST xG
1.31
76%
Home win
5.89
17%
Draw
14.33
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
61%
1.65
11%
8.83
Win to Nil
46%
2.17
1%
126.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 7.5 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 16.3 | 8.2 | 2.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 11.8 | 5.9 | 1.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sheffield Wednesday vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Sheffield Wednesday and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Sheffield Wednesday and 0.50 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Sheffield Wednesday vs Accrington ST?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sheffield Wednesday come into this having played 85 games, going 45W 25D 15L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-D.
On the other side, Accrington ST sit at 1.16 PPG from 85 outings (26W 21D 38L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Sheffield Wednesday carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Accrington ST — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sheffield Wednesday's home form reads 27W 12D 3L across 42 games on their own ground, a 2.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Accrington ST have taken 0.81 points per game from 42 outings (8W 10D 24L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sheffield Wednesday come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sheffield Wednesday are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.11 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Defensively: Sheffield Wednesday have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 85 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sheffield Wednesday
Current Season
Accrington ST
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sheffield Wednesday and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Sheffield Wednesday have gone 45W 25D 15L in their last 85 games (1.88 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 26W 21D 38L in their last 85 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sheffield Wednesday at home or Accrington ST away?
Sheffield Wednesday's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sheffield Wednesday at home: 2.21 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Sheffield Wednesday or Accrington ST been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sheffield Wednesday have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Accrington ST in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Sheffield Wednesday have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sheffield Wednesday won 3-0 on 10 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sheffield Wednesday have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Accrington ST — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Sheffield Wednesday
1
Draws
0
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Wednesday and Accrington ST?
From 4 meetings on record, Sheffield Wednesday have won 3, Accrington ST have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sheffield Wednesday and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2023, when Sheffield Wednesday 3-0 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Sheffield Wednesday and Accrington ST?
Sheffield Wednesday have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sheffield Wednesday are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sheffield Wednesday 50%, Accrington ST 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Sheffield Wednesday) and 50% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Sheffield Wednesday keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Accrington ST in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sheffield Wednesday home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sheffield Wednesday play Accrington ST?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sheffield Wednesday's recent matches and 40% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sheffield Wednesday vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Sheffield Wednesday's recent games and 50% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sheffield Wednesday and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Sheffield Wednesday have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sheffield Wednesday run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Accrington ST.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sheffield Wednesday beat Accrington ST 3-0 at Hillsborough, Regular Season - 41, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Wednesday 2.18 xG and Accrington ST 0.50 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Sheffield Wednesday beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.29 / defence 0.74 against Accrington ST attack 0.62 / defence 1.26, drawn from 86/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sheffield Wednesday 76% | Draw 17% | Accrington ST 7%, with Sheffield Wednesday to win its most likely call at 76%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Wednesday 42%, Accrington ST 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Accrington ST's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sheffield Wednesday arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Accrington ST (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.