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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Charlton cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Burton Albion.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charlton beat Burton Albion 3-1 at The Valley, Regular Season - 46, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.50 xG and Burton Albion 0.65 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Charlton beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.22 / defence 0.76 against Burton Albion attack 0.73 / defence 0.95, drawn from 91/91 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charlton 57% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 16%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 52%, Burton Albion 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charlton's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Burton Albion's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm. Burton Albion (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights