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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cardiff cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bolton.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cardiff beat Bolton 2-0 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.32 xG and Bolton 1.29 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bolton landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 1.09 / defence 1.05 against Bolton attack 1.09 / defence 0.88, drawn from 40/87 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cardiff 37% | Draw 26% | Bolton 36%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 49%, Bolton 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cardiff's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Bolton's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.42 PPG, Bolton 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Bolton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights