Cardiff 4-1 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cardiff at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AFC Wimbledon make the trip to Cardiff City Stadium to face Cardiff in League One (matchday 33). The match kicks off on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Current Form
Cardiff's record over their last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cardiff's home record over their last 10 home games: 9W 1D 0L (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Cardiff are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
AFC Wimbledon have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
AFC Wimbledon's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Cardiff. A 1.00 PPG lead over AFC Wimbledon (2.20 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Cardiff's last 10 home games and AFC Wimbledon's last 10 away games) — Cardiff have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, AFC Wimbledon in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Cardiff, 0 for AFC Wimbledon and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2025, ended Cardiff 1–0 AFC Wimbledon — a Cardiff win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Cardiff — key trading statistics (last 77 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
AFC Wimbledon — key trading statistics (last 77 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 56% versus AFC Wimbledon 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 49% | AFC Wimbledon 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 2.28 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 1.342 / defence 0.980 | AFC Wimbledon attack 1.035 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.151. Cardiff carry an above-average attack rating of 1.342 — their 2.28 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. AFC Wimbledon's defence rating of 1.225 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cardiff's projected output up. Data: built from Cardiff's last 31 games and AFC Wimbledon's last 30.
Result probabilities: Cardiff 62% | Draw 19% | AFC Wimbledon 18%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 1.60 | Draw 5.20 | AFC Wimbledon 5.46. The model has a clear lean to Cardiff (62%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (2.28 / 1.17) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cardiff are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.45 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cardiff's last 10 home games and AFC Wimbledon's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cardiff 60% (last 10 home games) | AFC Wimbledon 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League One, matchday 33 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 62% | Draw 19% | AFC Wimbledon 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Cardiff 2.28 / AFC Wimbledon 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 1.342 / def 0.980 | AFC Wimbledon attack 1.035 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.17
AFC Wimbledon xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon FAQs
What time does Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon?
Cardiff 4 - 1 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon is a League One fixture (matchday 33) (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 62% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 18% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Cardiff and AFC Wimbledon will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cardiff's attack at 1.34x the league average against AFC Wimbledon's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 2.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AFC Wimbledon's attack (1.03x) against Cardiff's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from Cardiff's last 31 games and AFC Wimbledon's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
62%
1.60
19%
5.20
18%
5.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
Cardiff xG
Total xG
3.45
1.17
AFC Wimbledon xG
1.60
62%
Home win
5.20
19%
Draw
5.46
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
10%
9.82
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
2%
53.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Cardiff and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.17 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cardiff come into this having played 77 games, going 29W 23D 25L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, AFC Wimbledon sit at 1.53 PPG from 77 outings (33W 19D 25L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Cardiff against 1.53 for AFC Wimbledon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cardiff's home form reads 20W 7D 12L across their last 39 home games, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, AFC Wimbledon have taken 1.36 points per game from their last 39 away games (14W 11D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Cardiff are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.17 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: AFC Wimbledon in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 77 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Current Season
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
Cardiff (Home) vs AFC Wimbledon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cardiff
Current Season
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
❓ Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon Form FAQs
What form are Cardiff and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 29W 23D 25L in their last 77 games (1.43 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 33W 19D 25L in their last 77 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Cardiff's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.72 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Cardiff or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cardiff have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Cardiff and AFC Wimbledon, the earliest from August 2025. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 17 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Cardiff
0
Draws
0
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and AFC Wimbledon?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Cardiff have won 2, AFC Wimbledon have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 February 2026: Cardiff 4-1 AFC Wimbledon.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and AFC Wimbledon?
Cardiff have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cardiff see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 49%, AFC Wimbledon 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Cardiff) and 41% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: Cardiff keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; AFC Wimbledon in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cardiff and AFC Wimbledon matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Cardiff's recent matches and 46% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cardiff and AFC Wimbledon matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Cardiff's recent games and 41% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Cardiff run riot with a 4-1 hammering of AFC Wimbledon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cardiff beat AFC Wimbledon 4-1 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 2.28 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.17 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Cardiff beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 1.34 / defence 0.98 against AFC Wimbledon attack 1.03 / defence 1.23, drawn from 31/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 62% | Draw 19% | AFC Wimbledon 18%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 49%, AFC Wimbledon 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (77 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (77 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.43 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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