Burton Albion 1-2 Wycombe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wycombe at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burton Albion vs Wycombe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Pirelli Stadium plays host to Burton Albion versus Wycombe in League One, Regular Season - 46. Kick-off: Saturday 30 April 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Burton Albion have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Burton Albion's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Pirelli Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Wycombe's overall League One record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Wycombe's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Wycombe are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Burton Albion lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Wycombe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Burton Albion half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Wycombe half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 51% versus Wycombe 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 47% | Wycombe 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.17 xG and Wycombe 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.957 / defence 1.023 | Wycombe attack 1.074 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.150. Data: 45 Burton Albion games / 45 Wycombe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 32% | Draw 31% | Wycombe 37%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Wycombe 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Wycombe as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wycombe if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Burton Albion 40% | Wycombe 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Wycombe | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 46 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 32% | Draw 31% | Wycombe 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Burton Albion 1.17 / Wycombe 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.957 / def 1.023 | Wycombe attack 1.074 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Wycombe (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Wycombe xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Wycombe kick off?
Burton Albion vs Wycombe kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Wycombe?
Burton Albion 1 - 2 Wycombe.
Where is Burton Albion vs Wycombe being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Wycombe part of?
Burton Albion vs Wycombe is a Regular Season - 46 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Wycombe?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 32% chance of winning, Wycombe a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Wycombe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Wycombe?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Burton Albion and Wycombe will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Wycombe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Wycombe?
Record (1 meetings): Burton Albion 0W | Draws 0 | Wycombe 1W.
What form are Burton Albion and Wycombe in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Wycombe (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Burton Albion's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Wycombe's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Wycombe's attack (1.07x) against Burton Albion's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wycombe Win
32%
3.11
31%
3.20
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.44
1.26
Wycombe xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
9%
11.02
11%
8.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.1 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Wycombe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Wycombe expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.26 for Wycombe, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Wycombe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Burton Albion's recent record stands at 14W 11D 20L from 45 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Wycombe, meanwhile, have gone 22W 14D 9L across 45 games — 1.78 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wycombe by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burton Albion heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Burton Albion have managed 10W 6D 6L from 22 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Burton Albion are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Wycombe's away record stands at 8W 9D 5L across 22 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burton Albion are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Wycombe are on 1.62 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Wycombe in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Current Season
Wycombe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Wycombe in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 14W 11D 20L in their last 45 games (1.18 PPG), while Wycombe have gone 22W 14D 9L in their last 45 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Wycombe away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.64 PPG; Wycombe away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or Wycombe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Wycombe in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wycombe won 3-0 on 30 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burton Albion have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Wycombe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Burton Albion
3
Draws
6
Wycombe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Wycombe?
From 10 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 1, Wycombe have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Wycombe last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Wycombe 3-0 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Wycombe?
Wycombe have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Wycombe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 54%, Wycombe 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Burton Albion) and 46% (Wycombe).
On the defensive side: Wycombe in 32%; Burton Albion have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Wycombe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Wycombe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Burton Albion's games and 59% of Wycombe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Burton Albion vs Wycombe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Burton Albion's recent games and 46% of Wycombe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Wycombe tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Wycombe in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wycombe edge out Burton Albion 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wycombe beat Burton Albion 1-2 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 46, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.17 xG and Wycombe 1.26 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.96 / defence 1.02 against Wycombe attack 1.07 / defence 1.07, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 32% | Draw 31% | Wycombe 37%, with Wycombe to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 47%, Wycombe 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Wycombe's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wycombe arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. Burton Albion (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.