AFC Wimbledon 3-4 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Wimbledon at 46%, yet in-form Accrington ST provide a compelling counter-argument — this AFC Wimbledon vs Accrington ST fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AFC Wimbledon host Accrington ST at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 46. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 April 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
AFC Wimbledon — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
AFC Wimbledon's form when playing at home: 0W 7D 3L across 10 games at The Cherry Red Records Stadium this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Accrington ST stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Accrington ST's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Accrington ST — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for AFC Wimbledon, 0 for Accrington ST and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2021, ended 2–0 with AFC Wimbledon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
AFC Wimbledon trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Accrington ST trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 58% versus Accrington ST 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 44% | Accrington ST 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.31 xG and Accrington ST 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.709 / defence 1.207 | Accrington ST attack 0.604 / defence 1.617. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.150. AFC Wimbledon's attack strength of 0.709 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Accrington ST bring a strong defensive rating of 1.617 — this is suppressing AFC Wimbledon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 AFC Wimbledon games / 45 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 46% | Draw 32% | Accrington ST 22%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Accrington ST 4.55. AFC Wimbledon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AFC Wimbledon as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Accrington ST (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: AFC Wimbledon 70% | Accrington ST 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Accrington ST | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 46 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 46% | Draw 32% | Accrington ST 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG AFC Wimbledon 1.31 / Accrington ST 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.709 / def 1.207 | Accrington ST attack 0.604 / def 1.617 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Accrington ST xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Accrington ST kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Accrington ST kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Accrington ST?
AFC Wimbledon 3 - 4 Accrington ST.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Accrington ST part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 46 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 46% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Accrington ST?
Record (1 meetings): AFC Wimbledon 1W | Draws 0 | Accrington ST 0W.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Accrington ST in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Accrington ST (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AFC Wimbledon's attack at 0.71x the league average against Accrington ST's defence at 1.62x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Accrington ST's attack versus AFC Wimbledon's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
46%
2.19
32%
3.09
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.15
0.84
Accrington ST xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
6%
16.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.8 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 0.84 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Accrington ST?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AFC Wimbledon's recent record stands at 6W 19D 20L from 45 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-D in the last five.
Accrington ST, meanwhile, have gone 16W 10D 19L across 45 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Accrington ST by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AFC Wimbledon heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AFC Wimbledon have managed 2W 14D 6L from 22 games — 0.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Accrington ST's away record stands at 4W 4D 14L across 22 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Accrington ST's season.
Goals in Recent Form
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.27 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 45 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
Accrington ST
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 6W 19D 20L in their last 45 games (0.82 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 16W 10D 19L in their last 45 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Accrington ST away?
AFC Wimbledon's home record (0.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 0.91 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
AFC Wimbledon's record when hosting Accrington ST specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
AFC Wimbledon
2
Draws
3
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Accrington ST?
From 6 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 1, Accrington ST have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Accrington ST 0-0 AFC Wimbledon.
Who has won more matches between AFC Wimbledon and Accrington ST?
Accrington ST have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 64%, Accrington ST 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (AFC Wimbledon) and 54% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon have failed to score in 36% of games; Accrington ST in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Accrington ST?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 41% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 54% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Accrington ST tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Accrington ST defy the odds to beat AFC Wimbledon 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Accrington ST beat AFC Wimbledon 3-4 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 46, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.31 xG and Accrington ST 0.84 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. AFC Wimbledon beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Accrington ST outscored their 0.84 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.71 / defence 1.21 against Accrington ST attack 0.60 / defence 1.62, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 46% | Draw 32% | Accrington ST 22%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Accrington ST win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 44%, Accrington ST 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Accrington ST's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Accrington ST arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.82. That form edge translated into the three points. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Accrington ST (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.