Notts County 1-1 Leicester – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Notts County at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Notts County vs Leicester fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Notts County and Leicester meet at Meadow Lane in League One, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Notts County's overall League One record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Notts County haven't played a League One game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Notts County have posted 5W 2D 3L at Meadow Lane — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Leicester (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Leicester haven't played a League One game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Leicester have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Notts County's favour (1.70 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Notts County have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Leicester in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Notts County — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Leicester — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Notts County 50% and Leicester 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 54% | Leicester 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.44 xG and Leicester 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Leicester attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.240. Data: 0 Notts County games / 0 Leicester games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Notts County 42% | Draw 26% | Leicester 32%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Leicester 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Notts County at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Notts County if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Notts County 60% | Leicester 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs Leicester | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Aug 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 42% | Draw 26% | Leicester 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Notts County 1.44 / Leicester 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Leicester attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Notts County (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Leicester xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Notts County vs Leicester kick off?
Notts County vs Leicester kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 15 August 2026 at Meadow Lane.
What was the final score in Notts County vs Leicester?
Notts County 1 - 1 Leicester.
Where is Notts County vs Leicester being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs Leicester part of?
Notts County vs Leicester is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs Leicester?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 42% chance of winning, Leicester a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Leicester?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Notts County and Leicester will score (BTTS).
Will Notts County vs Leicester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Leicester?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Notts County and Leicester in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Notts County (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Notts County's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Leicester's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Leicester's attack (0.85x) against Notts County's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
42%
2.37
26%
3.86
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Notts County xG
Total xG
2.65
1.21
Leicester xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
13%
7.95
8%
13.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.3 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs Leicester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Notts County and Leicester expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Notts County and 1.21 for Leicester, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs Leicester?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Notts County come into this having played 46 games, going 26W 8D 12L for 1.87 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W. Notts County haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Leicester sit at 1.13 PPG from 46 outings (12W 16D 18L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five. Leicester haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Notts County carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Leicester — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Notts County's home form reads 13W 5D 5L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Leicester have taken 1.04 points per game from 23 outings (5W 9D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Notts County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Notts County are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Leicester are on 1.26 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Leicester in 72%.
Last 46 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Pre-Season
Leicester
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Notts County and Leicester in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 26W 8D 12L in their last 46 games (1.87 PPG), while Leicester have gone 12W 16D 18L in their last 46 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or Leicester away?
Notts County's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 1.91 PPG; Leicester away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Notts County or Leicester been keeping clean sheets recently?
Notts County have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Leicester in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since August 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Notts County
1
Draws
0
Leicester
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Leicester?
From 1 meetings on record, Notts County have won 0, Leicester have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Notts County and Leicester last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Notts County 1-1 Leicester.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Notts County 52%, Leicester 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Notts County) and 56% (Leicester). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Notts County keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / Leicester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Notts County play Leicester?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Notts County's games and 74% of Leicester's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Notts County vs Leicester usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Notts County's matches and 56% of Leicester's.
Do Notts County and Leicester tend to score early?
Notts County have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Leicester in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Notts County and Leicester share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Notts County and Leicester finished level at 1-1 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 1, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.44 xG and Leicester 1.21 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Leicester attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Notts County 42% | Draw 26% | Leicester 32%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 54%, Leicester 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Notts County's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Leicester's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Notts County arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.