Burton Albion 1-1 Exeter City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Burton Albion at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burton Albion vs Exeter City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Burton Albion and Exeter City meet at Pirelli Stadium in League One (matchday 45). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Burton Albion have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Burton Albion's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Exeter City (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Exeter City have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Burton Albion's 1.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Exeter City's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Burton Albion's last 10 home games and Exeter City's last 10 away games) — Burton Albion have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Exeter City in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Burton Albion, 3 for Exeter City and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.4 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 3 Mar 2026, ended Burton Albion 1–1 Exeter City — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Burton Albion — key trading statistics (last 90 games, 45 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 48%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Exeter City — key trading statistics (last 90 games, 45 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 50% versus Exeter City 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 51% | Exeter City 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.39 xG and Exeter City 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.909 / defence 0.980 | Exeter City attack 0.959 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.165. Data: built from Burton Albion's last 90 games and Exeter City's last 90.
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 44% | Draw 27% | Exeter City 30%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.30 | Draw 3.74 | Exeter City 3.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Burton Albion are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burton Albion if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — mixed conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.4 goals per game across 7 H2H matches — though recent form (Burton Albion's last 10 home games and Exeter City's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Burton Albion 60% (last 10 home games) | Exeter City 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Exeter City | Competition: League One, matchday 45 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 44% | Draw 27% | Exeter City 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Burton Albion 1.39 / Exeter City 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.909 / def 0.980 | Exeter City attack 0.959 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Exeter City xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burton Albion vs Exeter City FAQs
What time does Burton Albion vs Exeter City kick off?
Burton Albion vs Exeter City kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Exeter City?
Burton Albion 1 - 1 Exeter City.
Where is Burton Albion vs Exeter City being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Exeter City part of?
Burton Albion vs Exeter City is a League One fixture (matchday 45) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Exeter City?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 44% chance of winning, Exeter City a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Exeter City?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Burton Albion and Exeter City will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Burton Albion vs Exeter City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Burton Albion's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Exeter City's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Exeter City's attack (0.96x) against Burton Albion's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from Burton Albion's last 90 games and Exeter City's last 90 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
44%
2.30
27%
3.74
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.48
1.10
Exeter City xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
15%
6.87
7%
13.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.7 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burton Albion vs Exeter City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Exeter City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Exeter City expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.10 for Exeter City, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Exeter City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 90 outings, Burton Albion have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 24W 27D 39L record — L-D-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Exeter City's form line: 27W 23D 40L from 90 games, 1.16 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Burton Albion against 1.16 for Exeter City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Burton Albion have posted 1.22 PPG from their last 45 home games (15W 10D 20L).
On the road, Exeter City have gone 11W 10D 24L from their last 45 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Burton Albion are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Exeter City are on 1.10 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 90 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Current Season
Exeter City
Current Season
Burton Albion (Home) vs Exeter City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burton Albion
Current Season
Exeter City
Current Season
❓ Burton Albion vs Exeter City Form FAQs
What form are Burton Albion and Exeter City in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 24W 27D 39L in their last 90 games (1.10 PPG), while Exeter City have gone 27W 23D 40L in their last 90 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Exeter City away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.22 PPG; Exeter City away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or Exeter City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Exeter City in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Burton Albion and Exeter City, the earliest from September 2022. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burton Albion have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Exeter City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Burton Albion
3
Draws
3
Exeter City
Recent Meetings
❓ Burton Albion vs Exeter City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Exeter City?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Burton Albion have won 2, Exeter City have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Exeter City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: Burton Albion 1-1 Exeter City.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Exeter City?
Exeter City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Exeter City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 51%, Exeter City 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Burton Albion) and 47% (Exeter City).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 33% of games; Exeter City in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Exeter City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burton Albion vs Exeter City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burton Albion and Exeter City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 44% of Exeter City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Burton Albion and Exeter City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Burton Albion's recent games and 47% of Exeter City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Exeter City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 73% of Exeter City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burton Albion and Exeter City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion and Exeter City finished level at 1-1 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.39 xG and Exeter City 1.10 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.91 / defence 0.98 against Exeter City attack 0.96 / defence 1.12, drawn from 90/90 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 44% | Draw 27% | Exeter City 30%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 51%, Exeter City 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Exeter City's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.10 PPG, Exeter City 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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