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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Burton Albion and Exeter City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Burton Albion and Exeter City finished level at 1-1 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.39 xG and Exeter City 1.10 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.91 / defence 0.98 against Exeter City attack 0.96 / defence 1.12, drawn from 90/90 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 44% | Draw 27% | Exeter City 30%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 51%, Exeter City 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burton Albion's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Exeter City's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.10 PPG, Exeter City 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights