🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Burton Albion edge out AFC Wimbledon 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Burton Albion beat AFC Wimbledon 1-0 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.66 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.07 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AFC Wimbledon landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.93 / defence 1.07 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.89 / defence 1.29, drawn from 88/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 51% | Draw 24% | AFC Wimbledon 24%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 52%, AFC Wimbledon 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burton Albion's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.08 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burton Albion win broke the near-deadlock. Burton Albion (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights