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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bradford and Plymouth share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bradford and Plymouth finished level at 1-1 at Valley Parade, Regular Season - 40, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 0.94 xG and Plymouth 1.31 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 0.81 / defence 0.79 against Plymouth attack 1.42 / defence 0.84, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bradford 27% | Draw 28% | Plymouth 45%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 49%, Plymouth 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bradford's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Plymouth's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights