Bradford 1-1 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bradford at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bradford vs Mansfield Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Mansfield Town travel to Valley Parade to take on Bradford in League One (matchday 38). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Bradford have gone 6W 0D 4L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Bradford at home: 9W 0D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Bradford are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Mansfield Town — last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Mansfield Town have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Bradford are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Bradford have won 2, Mansfield Town 3, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 1 Jan 2026, ended Bradford 0–3 Mansfield Town — a Mansfield Town win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bradford trading profile (last 81 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Mansfield Town trading profile (last 81 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 53% versus Mansfield Town 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 49% | Mansfield Town 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.07 xG and Mansfield Town 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 0.914 / defence 0.731 | Mansfield Town attack 0.781 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.170. Mansfield Town's attack rating of 0.781 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.67. Bradford have a tight defence (rating 0.731), which is pulling Mansfield Town's projected output down. Data: built from Bradford's last 37 games and Mansfield Town's last 81.
Result probabilities: Bradford 45% | Draw 33% | Mansfield Town 23%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 2.23 | Draw 3.07 | Mansfield Town 4.42. Bradford hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS Yes probability 32% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Mansfield Town's lower xG of 0.67 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bradford as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bradford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.74 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 75% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Bradford's last 10 home games and Mansfield Town's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 68%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bradford 30% (last 10 home games) | Mansfield Town 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League One, matchday 38 | Venue: Valley Parade • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 45% | Draw 33% | Mansfield Town 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% (Under 75%) | BTTS Yes 32% (No 68%) | xG Bradford 1.07 / Mansfield Town 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 0.914 / def 0.731 | Mansfield Town attack 0.781 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Bradford (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Mansfield Town xG
32%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bradford vs Mansfield Town FAQs
What time does Bradford vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Bradford vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at Valley Parade.
What was the final score in Bradford vs Mansfield Town?
Bradford 1 - 1 Mansfield Town.
Where is Bradford vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at Valley Parade.
What competition is Bradford vs Mansfield Town part of?
Bradford vs Mansfield Town is a League One fixture (matchday 38) (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 45% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Bradford and Mansfield Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (68%).
Will Bradford vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (75%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bradford's attack at 0.91x the league average against Mansfield Town's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mansfield Town's attack versus Bradford's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bradford's last 37 games and Mansfield Town's last 81 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (17.2%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
45%
2.23
33%
3.07
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Bradford xG
Total xG
1.74
0.67
Mansfield Town xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.12
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
8%
12.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.5 | 11.7 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.8 | 12.6 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bradford vs Mansfield Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Bradford and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Bradford and 0.67 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bradford come into this having played 81 games, going 40W 18D 23L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Mansfield Town sit at 1.22 PPG from 81 outings (26W 21D 34L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-D across their last five.
Bradford carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Mansfield Town — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Bradford's home form reads 30W 5D 4L across their last 39 home games, a 2.44 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — Bradford are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Mansfield Town have taken 1.13 points per game from their last 39 away games (11W 11D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bradford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bradford are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.26 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 81 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Current Season
Mansfield Town
Current Season
Bradford (Home) vs Mansfield Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bradford
Current Season
Mansfield Town
Current Season
❓ Bradford vs Mansfield Town Form FAQs
What form are Bradford and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 40W 18D 23L in their last 81 games (1.70 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 26W 21D 34L in their last 81 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or Mansfield Town away?
Bradford's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 2.44 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Bradford or Mansfield Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Mansfield Town in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from August 2021. They cover more than one competition — League Two, League One. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Mar 2024, when Mansfield Town won Bradford 1-5 Mansfield Town.
Bradford's record when hosting Mansfield Town specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Bradford
3
Draws
3
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Bradford vs Mansfield Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Mansfield Town?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Bradford have won 3, Mansfield Town have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bradford and Mansfield Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Bradford 1-0 Mansfield Town.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bradford 49%, Mansfield Town 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Bradford) and 54% (Mansfield Town).
On the defensive side: Bradford keep a clean sheet in 49% of their matches; Mansfield Town in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bradford vs Mansfield Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bradford and Mansfield Town matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Bradford's recent matches and 59% of Mansfield Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bradford and Mansfield Town matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Bradford's recent games and 54% of Mansfield Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bradford and Mansfield Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Bradford's recent matches and 80% of Mansfield Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bradford and Mansfield Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Valley Parade, Regular Season - 38, as Bradford and Mansfield Town drew 1-1 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.07 xG and Mansfield Town 0.67 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 0.91 / defence 0.73 against Mansfield Town attack 0.78 / defence 0.84, drawn from 37/81 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 45% | Draw 33% | Mansfield Town 23%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 49%, Mansfield Town 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (81 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (81 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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