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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bradford and Mansfield Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Valley Parade, Regular Season - 38, as Bradford and Mansfield Town drew 1-1 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.07 xG and Mansfield Town 0.67 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 0.91 / defence 0.73 against Mansfield Town attack 0.78 / defence 0.84, drawn from 37/81 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bradford 45% | Draw 33% | Mansfield Town 23%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 49%, Mansfield Town 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bradford's trading profile (81 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Mansfield Town's trading profile (81 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights