Accrington ST 0-2 Ipswich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ipswich at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Accrington ST vs Ipswich fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Accrington ST host Ipswich at Wham Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Accrington ST have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Accrington ST have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Accrington ST have posted 4W 5D 1L at Wham Stadium — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ipswich stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 League One matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Ipswich have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ipswich's form when playing away from home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Accrington ST) versus 1.90 (Ipswich). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Accrington ST have won 1, Ipswich 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2022, ended 1–2 with Ipswich winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Accrington ST in-play and half-time data (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Ipswich in-play and half-time data (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 57% versus Ipswich 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 57% | Ipswich 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.20 xG and Ipswich 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 1.150 / defence 1.277 | Ipswich attack 1.137 / defence 0.763. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.111. Ipswich's defence strength of 0.763 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 51 Accrington ST games / 52 Ipswich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 27% | Draw 27% | Ipswich 46%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Ipswich 2.17. Ipswich hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ipswich at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ipswich offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Accrington ST 80% | Ipswich 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Ipswich | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 27% | Draw 27% | Ipswich 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Accrington ST 1.20 / Ipswich 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 1.150 / def 1.277 | Ipswich attack 1.137 / def 0.763 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Ipswich xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Ipswich kick off?
Accrington ST vs Ipswich kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Ipswich?
Accrington ST 0 - 2 Ipswich.
Where is Accrington ST vs Ipswich being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Ipswich part of?
Accrington ST vs Ipswich is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Ipswich?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 27% chance of winning, Ipswich a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Ipswich?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Accrington ST and Ipswich will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Ipswich?
Record (2 meetings): Accrington ST 1W | Draws 0 | Ipswich 1W.
What form are Accrington ST and Ipswich in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. Ipswich (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Accrington ST's attack rating (1.15) and Ipswich's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ipswich's attack versus Accrington ST's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
27%
3.69
27%
3.68
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
2.81
1.61
Ipswich xG
3.69
27%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
5%
18.52
14%
7.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.7 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Ipswich expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.61 for Ipswich, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Ipswich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Accrington ST come into this having played 51 games, going 18W 14D 19L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Accrington ST, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Ipswich sit at 1.63 PPG from 51 outings (22W 17D 12L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Ipswich, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Accrington ST on 1.33 PPG, Ipswich on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Accrington ST's home form reads 12W 9D 5L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Ipswich have taken 1.42 points per game from 26 outings (10W 7D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Accrington ST are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Ipswich are on 1.51 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Early Season
Ipswich
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Ipswich in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 18W 14D 19L in their last 51 games (1.33 PPG), while Ipswich have gone 22W 17D 12L in their last 51 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Ipswich away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.73 PPG; Ipswich away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Accrington ST or Ipswich been keeping clean sheets recently?
Accrington ST have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Ipswich in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Accrington ST and Ipswich runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ipswich go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Mar 2023, when Ipswich won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Accrington ST's record when hosting Ipswich specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Accrington ST
0
Draws
3
Ipswich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Ipswich?
From 4 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 1, Ipswich have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Ipswich last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2023, when Ipswich 3-0 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Ipswich?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 69%, Ipswich 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Accrington ST) and 38% (Ipswich).
On the defensive side: Ipswich in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Ipswich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Ipswich?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Accrington ST's games and 46% of Ipswich's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Accrington ST vs Ipswich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Accrington ST's recent games and 38% of Ipswich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Ipswich tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Ipswich in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ipswich cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Accrington ST.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat Accrington ST 0-2 at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.20 xG and Ipswich 1.61 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Accrington ST fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 1.15 / defence 1.28 against Ipswich attack 1.14 / defence 0.76, drawn from 51/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 27% | Draw 27% | Ipswich 46%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 57%, Ipswich 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ipswich's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.33 PPG, Ipswich 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ipswich win broke the near-deadlock. Accrington ST (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward. Ipswich (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.