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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Charlton defy the odds to beat Bolton 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charlton beat Bolton 1-2 at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.65 xG and Charlton 1.50 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.21 / defence 1.15 against Charlton attack 1.11 / defence 1.08, drawn from 71/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bolton 41% | Draw 24% | Charlton 35%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Charlton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 54%, Charlton 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bolton's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Charlton's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bolton arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Charlton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bolton (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights