🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Bolton at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bolton vs Charlton encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 26 as Bolton welcome Charlton to Toughsheet Community Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 21 January 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Bolton stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bolton, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bolton's home record at Toughsheet Community Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 League One appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bolton are significantly better at Toughsheet Community Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Across all League One games this season, Charlton have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Charlton's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bolton 1.20 PPG, Charlton 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: Bolton have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 7 past contests while Charlton have managed just 1 wins.

The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Charlton winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bolton and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

Bolton trading profile (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Charlton trading profile (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bolton 56% and Charlton 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bolton 54% | Charlton 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bolton 1.65 xG and Charlton 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bolton attack 1.207 / defence 1.154 | Charlton attack 1.111 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.170. Data: 71 Bolton games / 70 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bolton 41% | Draw 24% | Charlton 35%. Fair-value odds: Bolton 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Charlton 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bolton are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bolton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Bolton 70% | Charlton 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights