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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bolton edge out Bradford 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bolton beat Bradford 1-0 at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Semi-finals, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 2.15 xG and Bradford 1.33 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bolton fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Bradford landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.36 / defence 1.19 against Bradford attack 0.91 / defence 1.16, drawn from 92/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bolton 56% | Draw 21% | Bradford 23%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 53%, Bradford 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bolton's trading profile (92 games, 46 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Bradford's trading profile (92 games, 46 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bolton 1.55 PPG, Bradford 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bolton win broke the near-deadlock. Bolton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Bradford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights