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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Birmingham run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Cambridge United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Birmingham beat Cambridge United 4-0 at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park, Regular Season - 11, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Birmingham 1.66 xG and Cambridge United 0.74 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Birmingham beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Birmingham attack 1.02 / defence 0.74 against Cambridge United attack 0.85 / defence 1.25, drawn from 27/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Birmingham 59% | Draw 25% | Cambridge United 16%, with Birmingham to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Birmingham 42%, Cambridge United 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Birmingham's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Cambridge United's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Birmingham arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points. Birmingham (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Cambridge United (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights