🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Birmingham at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Birmingham vs Cambridge United encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park plays host to Birmingham versus Cambridge United in League One, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Tuesday 11 February 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Birmingham have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Birmingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park, Birmingham have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Cambridge United (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 League One outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in League One this season, Cambridge United have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. Birmingham's 2.40 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of Cambridge United's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Trading

Birmingham half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).

Cambridge United half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Birmingham 51% versus Cambridge United 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Birmingham 42% | Cambridge United 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Birmingham 1.66 xG and Cambridge United 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Birmingham attack 1.024 / defence 0.736 | Cambridge United attack 0.849 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.186. Cambridge United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing Birmingham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Birmingham's defence rating of 0.736 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 27 Birmingham games / 75 Cambridge United games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Birmingham 59% | Draw 25% | Cambridge United 16%. Fair-value odds: Birmingham 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Cambridge United 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Birmingham (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Birmingham at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Birmingham 30% | Cambridge United 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights