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Stockport County cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over AFC Wimbledon.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County beat AFC Wimbledon 0-2 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.25 xG and Stockport County 1.44 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. AFC Wimbledon fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.86 / defence 1.31 against Stockport County attack 0.99 / defence 1.04, drawn from 42/86 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 33% | Draw 26% | Stockport County 41%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 40%, Stockport County 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Stockport County's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.43 PPG, Stockport County 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stockport County win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stockport County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights