AFC Wimbledon 1-3 Plymouth – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Plymouth at 65% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth encounter.

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Full Analysis

The Cherry Red Records Stadium plays host to AFC Wimbledon versus Plymouth in League One (matchday 44). Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

AFC Wimbledon have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

AFC Wimbledon's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — AFC Wimbledon are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Plymouth's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Plymouth have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

On a straight form reading, Plymouth are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Plymouth edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended AFC Wimbledon 2–1 Plymouth — a AFC Wimbledon win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

AFC Wimbledon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 88 games, 43 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Plymouth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 88 games, 43 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 34 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 39% versus Plymouth 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 40% | Plymouth 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 0.92 xG and Plymouth 2.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.798 / defence 1.326 | Plymouth attack 1.399 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.134. AFC Wimbledon's attack rating of 0.798 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. Plymouth have an above-average attack rating of 1.399, which lifts their away xG to 2.10. AFC Wimbledon's defence rating of 1.326 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Plymouth's projected output up. Data: built from AFC Wimbledon's last 43 games and Plymouth's last 42.

Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 15% | Draw 20% | Plymouth 65%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 6.47 | Draw 5.02 | Plymouth 1.55. The model has a clear lean to Plymouth (65%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Plymouth as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (AFC Wimbledon's last 10 home games and Plymouth's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: AFC Wimbledon 50% (last 10 home games) | Plymouth 50% (last 10 away games).

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