🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Plymouth cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over AFC Wimbledon.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plymouth beat AFC Wimbledon 1-3 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 44, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 0.92 xG and Plymouth 2.10 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Plymouth outscored their 2.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.80 / defence 1.33 against Plymouth attack 1.40 / defence 0.83, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 15% | Draw 20% | Plymouth 65%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 40%, Plymouth 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (88 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Plymouth's trading profile (88 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.40 PPG, Plymouth 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights