AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Northampton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AFC Wimbledon at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AFC Wimbledon vs Northampton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Northampton make the trip to The Cherry Red Records Stadium to face AFC Wimbledon in League One (matchday 36). The match kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Form
AFC Wimbledon (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
AFC Wimbledon's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Northampton have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Northampton have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in AFC Wimbledon's favour (1.20 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Northampton edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Dec 2025, ended AFC Wimbledon 1–3 Northampton — a Northampton win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
AFC Wimbledon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 81 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Northampton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 81 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 38% versus Northampton 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 38% | Northampton 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.28 xG and Northampton 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.785 / defence 0.998 | Northampton attack 0.705 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.160. AFC Wimbledon's attack rating of 0.785 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.28. Northampton's attack rating of 0.705 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Data: built from AFC Wimbledon's last 33 games and Northampton's last 81.
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 47% | Draw 29% | Northampton 24%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 2.12 | Draw 3.46 | Northampton 4.20. AFC Wimbledon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AFC Wimbledon are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AFC Wimbledon 40% (last 10 home games) | Northampton 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Northampton | Competition: League One, matchday 36 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 March 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 47% | Draw 29% | Northampton 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG AFC Wimbledon 1.28 / Northampton 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.785 / def 0.998 | Northampton attack 0.705 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Northampton xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AFC Wimbledon vs Northampton FAQs
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Northampton kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Northampton kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 8 March 2026 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Northampton?
AFC Wimbledon 1 - 0 Northampton.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Northampton being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Northampton part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Northampton is a League One fixture (matchday 36) (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Northampton?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 47% chance of winning, Northampton a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Northampton?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Northampton will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Northampton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AFC Wimbledon's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Northampton's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — Northampton's attack (0.70x) against AFC Wimbledon's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from AFC Wimbledon's last 33 games and Northampton's last 81 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.1%), 0-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
47%
2.12
29%
3.46
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.09
0.82
Northampton xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
7%
15.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 10.1 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.9 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AFC Wimbledon vs Northampton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Northampton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Northampton expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 0.82 for Northampton, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Northampton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AFC Wimbledon come into this having played 81 games, going 34W 20D 27L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Northampton sit at 1.06 PPG from 81 outings (21W 23D 37L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five.
AFC Wimbledon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Northampton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
AFC Wimbledon's home form reads 20W 8D 11L across their last 39 home games, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Northampton have taken 0.92 points per game from their last 39 away games (8W 12D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Wimbledon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Northampton are on 0.98 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 81 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
Northampton
Current Season
AFC Wimbledon (Home) vs Northampton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
Northampton
Current Season
❓ AFC Wimbledon vs Northampton Form FAQs
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Northampton in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 34W 20D 27L in their last 81 games (1.51 PPG), while Northampton have gone 21W 23D 37L in their last 81 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Northampton away?
AFC Wimbledon's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.74 PPG; Northampton away: 0.92 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Northampton been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Northampton in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. They cover more than one competition — League Two, League One. The most recent was on 8 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AFC Wimbledon have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Northampton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
AFC Wimbledon
1
Draws
2
Northampton
Recent Meetings
❓ AFC Wimbledon vs Northampton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Northampton?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, AFC Wimbledon have won 1, Northampton have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Northampton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2026: AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between AFC Wimbledon and Northampton?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 28%, Northampton 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (AFC Wimbledon) and 51% (Northampton).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon keep a clean sheet in 49% of their matches; AFC Wimbledon have failed to score in 31% of games; Northampton in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Northampton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AFC Wimbledon vs Northampton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AFC Wimbledon and Northampton matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 51% of Northampton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AFC Wimbledon and Northampton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 51% of Northampton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Northampton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 62% of Northampton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AFC Wimbledon edge out Northampton 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Wimbledon beat Northampton 1-0 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.28 xG and Northampton 0.82 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Northampton landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.79 / defence 1.00 against Northampton attack 0.70 / defence 1.15, drawn from 33/81 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 47% | Draw 29% | Northampton 24%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 38%, Northampton 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (81 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Northampton's trading profile (81 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AFC Wimbledon arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. Northampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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