🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Cardiff defy the odds to beat AFC Wimbledon 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cardiff beat AFC Wimbledon 0-1 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.32 xG and Cardiff 0.75 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AFC Wimbledon fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.97 / defence 0.97 against Cardiff attack 0.71 / defence 0.98, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 49% | Draw 31% | Cardiff 20%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Cardiff win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 31%, Cardiff 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Cardiff's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, AFC Wimbledon arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Cardiff winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Cardiff (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights