🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates AFC Wimbledon at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AFC Wimbledon vs Cardiff encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Cardiff make the trip to The Cherry Red Records Stadium to face AFC Wimbledon in League One, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Tuesday 19 August 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Current Form

AFC Wimbledon's overall League One record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. AFC Wimbledon have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

AFC Wimbledon's home record at The Cherry Red Records Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Cherry Red Records Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Cardiff have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Cardiff have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Cardiff's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form ledger tips toward AFC Wimbledon. A 0.80 PPG lead over Cardiff (1.90 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

Trading Data

AFC Wimbledon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.

Cardiff goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 31% versus Cardiff 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (AFC Wimbledon 31% | Cardiff 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.32 xG and Cardiff 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.966 / defence 0.975 | Cardiff attack 0.711 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.087. Data: 3 AFC Wimbledon games / 3 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 49% | Draw 31% | Cardiff 20%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 2.04 | Draw 3.23 | Cardiff 5.00. AFC Wimbledon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates AFC Wimbledon as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: AFC Wimbledon 20% | Cardiff 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights