Wrexham 1-2 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Wrexham face Hull City.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Wrexham welcome Hull City to Racecourse Ground in Championship (matchday 37). Kick-off is Tuesday 10 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Wrexham have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Wrexham's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hull City — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Hull City away from home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Wrexham at 2.00 PPG versus Hull City's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Wrexham have won 0, Hull City 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Dec 2025, ended Wrexham 0–2 Hull City — a Hull City win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Wrexham in-play tendencies (last 81 games, 40 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Hull City in-play tendencies (last 81 games, 40 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wrexham 52% versus Hull City 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wrexham 46% | Hull City 46%). Note also that Hull City surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Wrexham recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 53% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wrexham 1.35 xG and Hull City 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wrexham attack 1.277 / defence 1.266 | Hull City attack 1.185 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.217. Wrexham carry an above-average attack rating of 1.277 — their 1.35 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Wrexham's defence rating of 1.266 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hull City's projected output up. Data: built from Wrexham's last 35 games and Hull City's last 82.
Result probabilities: Wrexham 27% | Draw 25% | Hull City 47%. Fair-value odds: Wrexham 3.67 | Draw 3.95 | Hull City 2.11. Hull City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.35 / 1.83) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hull City are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Wrexham's last 10 home games and Hull City's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wrexham 80% (last 10 home games) | Hull City 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wrexham vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, matchday 37 | Venue: Racecourse Ground • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wrexham 27% | Draw 25% | Hull City 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Wrexham 1.35 / Hull City 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Wrexham attack 1.277 / def 1.266 | Hull City attack 1.185 / def 0.819 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Hull City (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Wrexham xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Hull City xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wrexham vs Hull City FAQs
What time does Wrexham vs Hull City kick off?
Wrexham vs Hull City kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 10 March 2026 at Racecourse Ground.
What was the final score in Wrexham vs Hull City?
Wrexham 1 - 2 Hull City.
Where is Wrexham vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Racecourse Ground.
What competition is Wrexham vs Hull City part of?
Wrexham vs Hull City is a Championship fixture (matchday 37) (England).
Who is favourite to win Wrexham vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Wrexham a 27% chance of winning, Hull City a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Wrexham and Hull City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Wrexham vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wrexham's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Hull City's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Hull City's attack versus Wrexham's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Wrexham's last 35 games and Hull City's last 82 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
27%
3.67
25%
3.95
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Wrexham xG
Total xG
3.18
1.83
Hull City xG
3.67
27%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
16%
6.21
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
4%
22.81
12%
8.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wrexham vs Hull City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wrexham vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Wrexham and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Wrexham and 1.83 for Hull City, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Wrexham vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 81 outings, Wrexham have picked up 1.84 PPG on a 42W 23D 16L record — L-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Hull City's form line: 30W 18D 33L from 81 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Wrexham are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hull City.
Venue Form
On home soil, Wrexham have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 40 home games (23W 11D 6L).
On the road, Hull City have gone 16W 8D 16L from their last 40 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wrexham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wrexham are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.23 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 81 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wrexham
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
Wrexham (Home) vs Hull City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wrexham
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Wrexham vs Hull City Form FAQs
What form are Wrexham and Hull City in coming into this match?
Wrexham have gone 42W 23D 16L in their last 81 games (1.84 PPG), while Hull City have gone 30W 18D 33L in their last 81 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wrexham at home or Hull City away?
Wrexham's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wrexham at home: 2.00 PPG; Hull City away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Wrexham or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Hull City in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from December 2025. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 10 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Wrexham
0
Draws
2
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Wrexham vs Hull City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Hull City?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Wrexham have won 0, Hull City have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wrexham and Hull City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 March 2026: Wrexham 1-2 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Wrexham and Hull City?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
Hull City see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wrexham 58%, Hull City 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Wrexham) and 42% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Wrexham keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Hull City in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wrexham home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wrexham vs Hull City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wrexham and Hull City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Wrexham's recent matches and 48% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Wrexham and Hull City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Wrexham's recent games and 42% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wrexham and Hull City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Wrexham's recent matches and 58% of Hull City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hull City edge out Wrexham 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Wrexham 1-2 at Racecourse Ground, Regular Season - 37, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 1.35 xG and Hull City 1.83 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 1.28 / defence 1.27 against Hull City attack 1.19 / defence 0.82, drawn from 35/82 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wrexham 27% | Draw 25% | Hull City 47%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 46%, Hull City 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wrexham's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Hull City's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Hull City winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wrexham (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.02 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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