Birmingham 1-0 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Birmingham at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Birmingham vs QPR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Birmingham and QPR meet at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park in Championship, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 11 March 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Birmingham have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Birmingham have posted 4W 5D 1L at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
QPR's overall Championship record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
QPR's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form favours the hosts. Birmingham's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of QPR's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Birmingham, 4 for QPR and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2025, ended 1–2 with QPR winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Birmingham — key trading statistics (82 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
QPR — key trading statistics (82 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Birmingham 52% versus QPR 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Birmingham 46% | QPR 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Birmingham 1.58 xG and QPR 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Birmingham attack 1.082 / defence 1.036 | QPR attack 0.792 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.215. Data: 36 Birmingham games / 82 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Birmingham 50% | Draw 28% | QPR 23%. Fair-value odds: Birmingham 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | QPR 4.35. Birmingham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
QPR lead the H2H ledger, but Birmingham carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Birmingham at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Birmingham if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Birmingham 90% | QPR 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Birmingham vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 Mar 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Birmingham 50% | Draw 28% | QPR 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Birmingham 1.58 / QPR 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Birmingham attack 1.082 / def 1.036 | QPR attack 0.792 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Birmingham (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Birmingham xG
Expected Goals
1.00
QPR xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Birmingham vs QPR kick off?
Birmingham vs QPR kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 11 March 2026 at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park.
What was the final score in Birmingham vs QPR?
Birmingham 1 - 0 QPR.
Where is Birmingham vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park.
What competition is Birmingham vs QPR part of?
Birmingham vs QPR is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Birmingham vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Birmingham a 50% chance of winning, QPR a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Birmingham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Birmingham vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Birmingham and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Birmingham vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and QPR?
Record (7 meetings): Birmingham 2W | Draws 1 | QPR 4W.
What form are Birmingham and QPR in?
Birmingham (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. QPR (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Birmingham's attack rating (1.08) and QPR's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — QPR's attack (0.79x) against Birmingham's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 36/82 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Birmingham Win
50%
2.02
28%
3.58
23%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Birmingham xG
Total xG
2.58
1.00
QPR xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
4.44
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
5%
21.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Birmingham vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Birmingham and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Birmingham and 1.00 for QPR, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Birmingham vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Birmingham's recent record stands at 47W 19D 16L from 82 games, a 1.95 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five.
QPR, meanwhile, have gone 27W 22D 33L across 82 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Birmingham by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over QPR heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Birmingham have managed 27W 11D 2L from 40 games — 2.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
QPR's away record stands at 12W 11D 17L across 40 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Birmingham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Birmingham are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.21 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR in 62%.
Defensively: Birmingham have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 82 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Birmingham
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Birmingham and QPR in coming into this match?
Birmingham have gone 47W 19D 16L in their last 82 games (1.95 PPG), while QPR have gone 27W 22D 33L in their last 82 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Birmingham at home or QPR away?
Birmingham's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Birmingham at home: 2.30 PPG; QPR away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Birmingham or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Birmingham have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, QPR in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 11 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Birmingham have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against QPR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Birmingham
1
Draws
4
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and QPR?
From 8 meetings on record, Birmingham have won 3, QPR have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Birmingham and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2026, when Birmingham 1-0 QPR.
Who has won more matches between Birmingham and QPR?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Birmingham 52%, QPR 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Birmingham) and 45% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Birmingham keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; QPR in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Birmingham home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Birmingham play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Birmingham's recent matches and 52% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Birmingham vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Birmingham's recent games and 45% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Birmingham and QPR tend to score early?
Birmingham have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, QPR in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Birmingham edge out QPR 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Birmingham beat QPR 1-0 at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park, Regular Season - 37, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Birmingham 1.58 xG and QPR 1.00 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. QPR landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Birmingham attack 1.08 / defence 1.04 against QPR attack 0.79 / defence 1.13, drawn from 36/82 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Birmingham 50% | Draw 28% | QPR 23%, with Birmingham to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Birmingham 46%, QPR 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Birmingham's trading profile (82 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
QPR's trading profile (82 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Birmingham arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Birmingham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.