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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Wrexham and Derby share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wrexham and Derby finished level at 1-1 at Racecourse Ground, Regular Season - 7, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 1.26 xG and Derby 1.86 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Derby landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 0.96 / defence 1.49 against Derby attack 1.05 / defence 1.07, drawn from 6/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wrexham 26% | Draw 23% | Derby 52%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 50%, Derby 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wrexham's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Derby's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights