Wrexham 1-1 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wrexham vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Derby make the trip to Racecourse Ground to face Wrexham in Championship, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 September 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wrexham have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Wrexham have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wrexham's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Racecourse Ground this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Racecourse Ground.
Derby's overall Championship record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Derby have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Championship this season, Derby have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Wrexham's favour (1.70 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Wrexham — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Derby — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wrexham 46% versus Derby 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wrexham 50% | Derby 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wrexham 1.26 xG and Derby 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wrexham attack 0.958 / defence 1.490 | Derby attack 1.049 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.193. Data: 6 Wrexham games / 52 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wrexham 26% | Draw 23% | Derby 52%. Fair-value odds: Wrexham 3.85 | Draw 4.35 | Derby 1.92. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 1.86) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wrexham (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Wrexham 50% | Derby 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wrexham vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Racecourse Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Sep 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wrexham 26% | Draw 23% | Derby 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Wrexham 1.26 / Derby 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Wrexham attack 0.958 / def 1.490 | Derby attack 1.049 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.229 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Derby (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Wrexham xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Derby xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wrexham vs Derby kick off?
Wrexham vs Derby kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 27 September 2025 at Racecourse Ground.
What was the final score in Wrexham vs Derby?
Wrexham 1 - 1 Derby.
Where is Wrexham vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Racecourse Ground.
What competition is Wrexham vs Derby part of?
Wrexham vs Derby is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Wrexham vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Wrexham a 26% chance of winning, Derby a 52% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Wrexham and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Wrexham vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Derby?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wrexham and Derby in?
Wrexham (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Derby (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Wrexham's attack at 0.96x the league average against Derby's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Derby's attack (1.05x) against Wrexham's defence (1.49x) — and the away total comes out at 1.86.
These ratings are built from 6/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
26%
3.87
23%
4.42
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Wrexham xG
Total xG
3.13
1.86
Derby xG
3.87
26%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
15%
6.46
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
4%
24.97
15%
6.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wrexham vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Wrexham and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Wrexham and 1.86 for Derby, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Wrexham vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 52 outings, Wrexham have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 29W 12D 11L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Wrexham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Derby's form line: 14W 13D 25L from 52 games, 1.06 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Wrexham are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Derby.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Wrexham have posted 2.08 PPG from 26 outings (16W 6D 4L).
On the road, Derby have gone 5W 7D 14L from 26 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wrexham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wrexham are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.08 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wrexham
Early Season
Derby
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wrexham and Derby in coming into this match?
Wrexham have gone 29W 12D 11L in their last 52 games (1.90 PPG), while Derby have gone 14W 13D 25L in their last 52 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wrexham at home or Derby away?
Wrexham's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wrexham at home: 2.08 PPG; Derby away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Wrexham or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Derby in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 4 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Wrexham
1
Draws
0
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Derby?
From 2 meetings on record, Wrexham have won 1, Derby have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wrexham and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2026, when Derby 1-2 Wrexham.
Who has won more matches between Wrexham and Derby?
Wrexham have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Derby see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wrexham 50%, Derby 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Wrexham) and 50% (Derby). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wrexham keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Derby in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wrexham home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wrexham play Derby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Wrexham's games and 62% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wrexham vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Wrexham's matches and 50% of Derby's.
Do Wrexham and Derby tend to score early?
Wrexham have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Derby in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wrexham and Derby share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wrexham and Derby finished level at 1-1 at Racecourse Ground, Regular Season - 7, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 1.26 xG and Derby 1.86 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Derby landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 0.96 / defence 1.49 against Derby attack 1.05 / defence 1.07, drawn from 6/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wrexham 26% | Draw 23% | Derby 52%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 50%, Derby 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wrexham's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Derby's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.