West Brom 0-0 Ipswich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates West Brom at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as West Brom face Ipswich.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
West Brom welcome Ipswich to The Hawthorns in Championship (matchday 45). Kick-off is Saturday 25 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Guide
West Brom — last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
West Brom's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 10 games, Ipswich have recorded 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Ipswich have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (West Brom) versus 1.90 (Ipswich). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for West Brom, 1 for Ipswich and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2025, ended West Brom 0–1 Ipswich — a Ipswich win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
West Brom in-play and half-time data (last 81 games, 40 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Ipswich in-play and half-time data (last 81 games, 40 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 56% versus Ipswich 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 41% | Ipswich 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.51 xG and Ipswich 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 1.035 / defence 0.948 | Ipswich attack 1.213 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.186. Ipswich have an above-average attack rating of 1.213, which lifts their away xG to 1.36. Data: built from West Brom's last 90 games and Ipswich's last 43.
Result probabilities: West Brom 39% | Draw 28% | Ipswich 33%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 2.53 | Draw 3.61 | Ipswich 3.05. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, West Brom are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on West Brom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (West Brom's last 10 home games and Ipswich's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: West Brom 40% (last 10 home games) | Ipswich 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Ipswich | Competition: Championship, matchday 45 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 39% | Draw 28% | Ipswich 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG West Brom 1.51 / Ipswich 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 1.035 / def 0.948 | Ipswich attack 1.213 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: West Brom (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Ipswich xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ West Brom vs Ipswich FAQs
What time does West Brom vs Ipswich kick off?
West Brom vs Ipswich kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Ipswich?
West Brom 0 - 0 Ipswich.
Where is West Brom vs Ipswich being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Ipswich part of?
West Brom vs Ipswich is a Championship fixture (matchday 45) (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Ipswich?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 39% chance of winning, Ipswich a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Ipswich?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both West Brom and Ipswich will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will West Brom vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from West Brom's attack rating (1.03) and Ipswich's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ipswich's attack versus West Brom's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from West Brom's last 90 games and Ipswich's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
39%
2.53
28%
3.61
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.88
1.36
Ipswich xG
2.53
39%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
10%
9.91
7%
13.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.6 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ West Brom vs Ipswich Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are West Brom and Ipswich expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for West Brom and 1.36 for Ipswich, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Ipswich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
West Brom come into this having played 81 games, going 23W 30D 28L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-W.
On the other side, Ipswich sit at 1.25 PPG from 81 outings (26W 23D 32L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: West Brom on 1.22 PPG, Ipswich on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
West Brom's home form reads 17W 15D 8L across their last 40 home games, a 1.65 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — West Brom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Ipswich have taken 1.18 points per game from their last 40 away games (12W 11D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
West Brom are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Ipswich are on 1.37 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 81 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Current Season
Ipswich
Current Season
West Brom (Home) vs Ipswich (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
West Brom
Current Season
Ipswich
Current Season
❓ West Brom vs Ipswich Form FAQs
What form are West Brom and Ipswich in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 23W 30D 28L in their last 81 games (1.22 PPG), while Ipswich have gone 26W 23D 32L in their last 81 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Ipswich away?
West Brom's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 1.65 PPG; Ipswich away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
West Brom's record when hosting Ipswich specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
West Brom
2
Draws
1
Ipswich
Recent Meetings
❓ West Brom vs Ipswich H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Ipswich?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, West Brom have won 1, Ipswich have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Ipswich last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: West Brom 0-0 Ipswich.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 55%, Ipswich 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (West Brom) and 55% (Ipswich).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Ipswich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ West Brom vs Ipswich Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in West Brom and Ipswich matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of West Brom's games and 65% of Ipswich's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are West Brom and Ipswich matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of West Brom's recent games and 55% of Ipswich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and Ipswich matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of West Brom's recent matches and 75% of Ipswich's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at West Brom's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom and Ipswich finished level at 0-0 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 45, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.51 xG and Ipswich 1.36 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. West Brom fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Ipswich landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 1.03 / defence 0.95 against Ipswich attack 1.21 / defence 1.14, drawn from 90/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 39% | Draw 28% | Ipswich 33%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 41%, Ipswich 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ipswich's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Brom 1.22 PPG, Ipswich 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Ipswich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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