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Swansea cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Charlton.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Swansea beat Charlton 3-1 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 46, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.41 xG and Charlton 0.99 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Swansea beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 1.04 / defence 1.01 against Charlton attack 0.82 / defence 1.04, drawn from 91/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swansea 45% | Draw 30% | Charlton 25%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 47%, Charlton 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swansea's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Charlton's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Swansea 1.34 PPG, Charlton 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm. Charlton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights