Sunderland 1-3 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sunderland at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sunderland vs Swansea encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sunderland and Swansea meet at Stadium of Light in Championship, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 January 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sunderland's overall Championship record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sunderland's home record at Stadium of Light: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Swansea (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Championship outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swansea's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Sunderland's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Swansea's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Sunderland 0W, Swansea 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Swansea winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sunderland half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Swansea half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 54% versus Swansea 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 54% | Swansea 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.53 xG and Swansea 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 0.999 / defence 1.102 | Swansea attack 1.091 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.227 / away 1.160. Swansea bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing Sunderland's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Sunderland games / 72 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 41% | Draw 25% | Swansea 35%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Swansea 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sunderland as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sunderland 40% | Swansea 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jan 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 41% | Draw 25% | Swansea 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Sunderland 1.53 / Swansea 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 0.999 / def 1.102 | Swansea attack 1.091 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.227 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Swansea xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Swansea kick off?
Sunderland vs Swansea kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 January 2023 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Swansea?
Sunderland 1 - 3 Swansea.
Where is Sunderland vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Swansea part of?
Sunderland vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 41% chance of winning, Swansea a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sunderland and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Swansea?
Record (1 meetings): Sunderland 0W | Draws 0 | Swansea 1W.
What form are Sunderland and Swansea in?
Sunderland (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Swansea (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sunderland's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Swansea's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. Flip it around — Swansea's attack (1.09x) against Sunderland's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 26/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
41%
2.46
25%
4.07
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.93
1.40
Swansea xG
2.46
41%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
10%
9.92
8%
13.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.4 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.40 for Swansea, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sunderland's recent record stands at 34W 21D 17L from 72 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Swansea, meanwhile, have gone 25W 21D 26L across 72 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Sunderland against 1.33 for Swansea. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sunderland have managed 21W 7D 8L from 36 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Swansea's away record stands at 10W 11D 15L across 36 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sunderland are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.31 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Blended
Swansea
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Swansea in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 34W 21D 17L in their last 72 games (1.71 PPG), while Swansea have gone 25W 21D 26L in their last 72 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Swansea away?
Sunderland's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.94 PPG; Swansea away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Swansea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Swansea in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sunderland have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Swansea — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sunderland
1
Draws
4
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Swansea?
From 6 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 1, Swansea have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Sunderland 0-1 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Swansea?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 50%, Swansea 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Sunderland) and 56% (Swansea).
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Swansea in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Swansea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sunderland's recent matches and 53% of Swansea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sunderland vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Sunderland's recent games and 56% of Swansea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Swansea tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Swansea in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Swansea cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sunderland.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat Sunderland 1-3 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 27, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.53 xG and Swansea 1.40 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Swansea outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.00 / defence 1.10 against Swansea attack 1.09 / defence 1.25, drawn from 26/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 41% | Draw 25% | Swansea 35%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Swansea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 54%, Swansea 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Swansea's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.71 PPG, Swansea 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.