Swansea 2-1 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Blackburn at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Swansea vs Blackburn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Blackburn travel to Swansea.com Stadium to take on Swansea. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 March 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Swansea have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Blackburn — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Blackburn away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Swansea) versus 0.80 (Blackburn). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Swansea, 3 for Blackburn and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with Swansea winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Swansea trading profile (80 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Blackburn trading profile (80 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 61% versus Blackburn 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 60% | Blackburn 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.38 xG and Blackburn 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.795 / defence 1.219 | Blackburn attack 0.931 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.269. Swansea's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Blackburn bring a strong defensive rating of 1.271 — this is suppressing Swansea's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 80 Swansea games / 80 Blackburn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 36% | Draw 25% | Blackburn 39%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Blackburn 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Blackburn as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Blackburn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Swansea 60% | Blackburn 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 36% | Draw 25% | Blackburn 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Swansea 1.38 / Blackburn 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.795 / def 1.219 | Blackburn attack 0.931 / def 1.271 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Blackburn (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Blackburn xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Blackburn kick off?
Swansea vs Blackburn kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Blackburn?
Swansea 2 - 1 Blackburn.
Where is Swansea vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Blackburn part of?
Swansea vs Blackburn is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 36% chance of winning, Blackburn a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Blackburn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Swansea and Blackburn will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Blackburn?
Record (5 meetings): Swansea 2W | Draws 0 | Blackburn 3W.
What form are Swansea and Blackburn in?
Swansea (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Blackburn (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Swansea's attack at 0.80x the league average against Blackburn's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Blackburn's attack versus Swansea's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 80/80 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackburn Win
36%
2.77
25%
3.98
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.82
1.44
Blackburn xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
9%
11.68
10%
10.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Swansea and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Swansea and 1.44 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Swansea come into this having played 80 games, going 28W 21D 31L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Blackburn sit at 1.35 PPG from 80 outings (31W 15D 34L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Swansea on 1.31 PPG, Blackburn on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Swansea's home form reads 15W 9D 16L across 40 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Blackburn have taken 1.10 points per game from 40 outings (12W 8D 20L).
Goals in Recent Form
Swansea are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.25 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Swansea have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 80 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Current Season
Blackburn
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 28W 21D 31L in their last 80 games (1.31 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 31W 15D 34L in their last 80 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Blackburn away?
Swansea's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.35 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 20 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Swansea have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when Blackburn won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Swansea's record when hosting Blackburn specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Swansea
0
Draws
4
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Blackburn?
From 10 meetings on record, Swansea have won 6, Blackburn have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Blackburn last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2026, when Swansea 3-1 Blackburn.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Blackburn?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 58%, Blackburn 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Swansea and 60% for Blackburn. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Blackburn in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Blackburn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Swansea's recent matches and 45% of Blackburn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs Blackburn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Swansea's matches and 60% of Blackburn's.
Do Swansea and Blackburn tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Blackburn in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Swansea defy the odds to beat Blackburn 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat Blackburn 2-1 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.38 xG and Blackburn 1.44 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.80 / defence 1.22 against Blackburn attack 0.93 / defence 1.27, drawn from 80/80 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 36% | Draw 25% | Blackburn 39%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Swansea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 60%, Blackburn 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (80 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Blackburn's trading profile (80 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.31 PPG, Blackburn 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.