Swansea 2-1 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Blackburn at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Swansea face Blackburn.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Blackburn travel to Swansea.com Stadium to take on Swansea in Championship (matchday 35). The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Swansea have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Swansea have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Blackburn — last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Blackburn away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Swansea) versus 0.80 (Blackburn). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Swansea have won 2, Blackburn 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Swansea 1–0 Blackburn — a Swansea win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Swansea trading profile (last 80 games, 40 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 30 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Blackburn trading profile (last 80 games, 40 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 61% versus Blackburn 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 60% | Blackburn 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.38 xG and Blackburn 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.795 / defence 1.219 | Blackburn attack 0.931 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.269. Swansea's attack rating of 0.795 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.38. Blackburn's defence rating of 1.271 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Swansea's projected output up. Swansea's defence rating of 1.219 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Blackburn's projected output up. Data: built from Swansea's last 80 games and Blackburn's last 80.
Result probabilities: Swansea 36% | Draw 25% | Blackburn 39%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 2.77 | Draw 3.98 | Blackburn 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Blackburn as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Blackburn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Swansea's last 10 home games and Blackburn's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Swansea 60% (last 10 home games) | Blackburn 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, matchday 35 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 36% | Draw 25% | Blackburn 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Swansea 1.38 / Blackburn 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.795 / def 1.219 | Blackburn attack 0.931 / def 1.271 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Blackburn (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Blackburn xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Swansea vs Blackburn FAQs
What time does Swansea vs Blackburn kick off?
Swansea vs Blackburn kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Blackburn?
Swansea 2 - 1 Blackburn.
Where is Swansea vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Blackburn part of?
Swansea vs Blackburn is a Championship fixture (matchday 35) (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 36% chance of winning, Blackburn a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Blackburn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Swansea and Blackburn will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Swansea vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Swansea's attack at 0.80x the league average against Blackburn's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Blackburn's attack versus Swansea's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Swansea's last 80 games and Blackburn's last 80 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackburn Win
36%
2.77
25%
3.98
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.82
1.44
Blackburn xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
9%
11.68
10%
10.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Swansea vs Blackburn Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Swansea and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Swansea and 1.44 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Swansea come into this having played 80 games, going 28W 21D 31L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Blackburn sit at 1.35 PPG from 80 outings (31W 15D 34L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Swansea on 1.31 PPG, Blackburn on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Swansea's home form reads 15W 9D 16L across their last 40 home games, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Blackburn have taken 1.10 points per game from their last 40 away games (12W 8D 20L).
Goals in Recent Form
Swansea are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.25 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Swansea have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 80 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Current Season
Blackburn
Current Season
Swansea (Home) vs Blackburn (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Swansea
Current Season
Blackburn
Current Season
❓ Swansea vs Blackburn Form FAQs
What form are Swansea and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 28W 21D 31L in their last 80 games (1.31 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 31W 15D 34L in their last 80 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Blackburn away?
Swansea's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.35 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Swansea have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 31 Oct 2026, when Swansea won Swansea 4-0 Blackburn.
Swansea's record when hosting Blackburn specifically: 5W 0D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Swansea
0
Draws
3
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Swansea vs Blackburn H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Blackburn?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Swansea have won 7, Blackburn have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Blackburn last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Swansea 4-0 Blackburn.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Blackburn?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 58%, Blackburn 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Swansea and 60% for Blackburn. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Blackburn in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Swansea vs Blackburn Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Swansea and Blackburn matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Swansea's recent matches and 45% of Blackburn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Swansea and Blackburn matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Swansea's matches and 60% of Blackburn's.
Do Swansea and Blackburn matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Swansea's recent matches and 70% of Blackburn's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Swansea defy the odds to beat Blackburn 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat Blackburn 2-1 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.38 xG and Blackburn 1.44 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.80 / defence 1.22 against Blackburn attack 0.93 / defence 1.27, drawn from 80/80 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 36% | Draw 25% | Blackburn 39%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Swansea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 60%, Blackburn 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (80 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Blackburn's trading profile (80 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.31 PPG, Blackburn 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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