Preston 0-0 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Preston vs Hull City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 35 as Preston welcome Hull City to Deepdale. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 March 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Preston have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Preston's home record at Deepdale: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Championship appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hull City stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hull City's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Preston) versus 1.90 (Hull City). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Preston have won 1, Hull City 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.4 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with Hull City winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Preston in-play and half-time data (80 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Hull City in-play and half-time data (80 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Preston 50% versus Hull City 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preston 51% | Hull City 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preston 1.60 xG and Hull City 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preston attack 1.112 / defence 1.238 | Hull City attack 1.142 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.269. Data: 80 Preston games / 80 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Preston 35% | Draw 23% | Hull City 43%. Fair-value odds: Preston 2.86 | Draw 4.35 | Hull City 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.79) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hull City are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Preston 70% | Hull City 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preston vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Deepdale • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preston 35% | Draw 23% | Hull City 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Preston 1.60 / Hull City 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Preston attack 1.112 / def 1.238 | Hull City attack 1.142 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Hull City (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Preston xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Hull City xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Preston vs Hull City kick off?
Preston vs Hull City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Deepdale.
What was the final score in Preston vs Hull City?
Preston 0 - 0 Hull City.
Where is Preston vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Deepdale.
What competition is Preston vs Hull City part of?
Preston vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Preston vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Preston a 35% chance of winning, Hull City a 43% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preston vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Preston and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Preston vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Hull City?
Record (5 meetings): Preston 1W | Draws 2 | Hull City 2W.
What form are Preston and Hull City in?
Preston (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Hull City (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Preston's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Hull City's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Hull City's attack versus Preston's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 80/80 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
35%
2.89
23%
4.43
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Preston xG
Total xG
3.39
1.79
Hull City xG
2.89
35%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.50
34%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
17%
6.01
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
6%
17.35
9%
11.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Preston vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Preston and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Preston and 1.79 for Hull City, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Preston vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Preston come into this having played 80 games, going 32W 19D 29L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.41 PPG from 80 outings (30W 23D 27L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Preston on 1.44 PPG, Hull City on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Preston's home form reads 16W 10D 14L across 40 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 1.35 points per game from 40 outings (14W 12D 14L).
The Goals Picture
Preston are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.26 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 80 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preston
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Preston and Hull City in coming into this match?
Preston have gone 32W 19D 29L in their last 80 games (1.44 PPG), while Hull City have gone 30W 23D 27L in their last 80 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preston at home or Hull City away?
Preston's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preston at home: 1.45 PPG; Hull City away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Preston and Hull City runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 20 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Aug 2021, when Hull City won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Preston's record when hosting Hull City specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Preston
4
Draws
4
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Hull City?
From 10 meetings on record, Preston have won 2, Hull City have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Preston and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2026, when Preston 0-3 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Preston and Hull City?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Preston 58%, Hull City 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Preston) and 58% (Hull City). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Preston have failed to score in 32% of games; Hull City in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preston home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Preston play Hull City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Preston's games and 60% of Hull City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Preston vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Preston's matches and 58% of Hull City's.
Do Preston and Hull City tend to score early?
Preston have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Hull City in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Preston's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Deepdale, Regular Season - 35, as Preston and Hull City drew 0-0 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.60 xG and Hull City 1.79 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Preston fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Hull City landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 1.11 / defence 1.24 against Hull City attack 1.14 / defence 1.05, drawn from 80/80 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preston 35% | Draw 23% | Hull City 43%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 51%, Hull City 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preston's trading profile (80 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hull City's trading profile (80 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Preston 1.44 PPG, Hull City 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Preston (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.