Preston 0-0 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Preston face Hull City.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Preston welcome Hull City to Deepdale in Championship (matchday 35). Kick-off is Saturday 2 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Preston have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Preston's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hull City stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hull City's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Preston) versus 1.90 (Hull City). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Preston's last 10 home games and Hull City's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Preston, 2 for Hull City and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.4 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Preston 0–1 Hull City — a Hull City win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Preston in-play and half-time data (last 80 games, 40 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Hull City in-play and half-time data (last 80 games, 40 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Preston 50% versus Hull City 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preston 51% | Hull City 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preston 1.60 xG and Hull City 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preston attack 1.112 / defence 1.238 | Hull City attack 1.142 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.269. Preston's defence rating of 1.238 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hull City's projected output up. Data: built from Preston's last 80 games and Hull City's last 80.
Result probabilities: Preston 35% | Draw 23% | Hull City 43%. Fair-value odds: Preston 2.89 | Draw 4.43 | Hull City 2.34. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.60 / 1.79) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hull City are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Preston's last 10 home games and Hull City's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Preston 70% (last 10 home games) | Hull City 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preston vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, matchday 35 | Venue: Deepdale • Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preston 35% | Draw 23% | Hull City 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Preston 1.60 / Hull City 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Preston attack 1.112 / def 1.238 | Hull City attack 1.142 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Hull City (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Preston xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Hull City xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Preston vs Hull City FAQs
What time does Preston vs Hull City kick off?
Preston vs Hull City kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Deepdale.
What was the final score in Preston vs Hull City?
Preston 0 - 0 Hull City.
Where is Preston vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Deepdale.
What competition is Preston vs Hull City part of?
Preston vs Hull City is a Championship fixture (matchday 35) (England).
Who is favourite to win Preston vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Preston a 35% chance of winning, Hull City a 43% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preston vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Preston and Hull City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Preston vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Preston's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Hull City's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Hull City's attack versus Preston's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Preston's last 80 games and Hull City's last 80 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
35%
2.89
23%
4.43
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Preston xG
Total xG
3.39
1.79
Hull City xG
2.89
35%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.50
34%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
17%
6.01
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
6%
17.35
9%
11.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Preston vs Hull City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Preston vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Preston and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Preston and 1.79 for Hull City, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Preston vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Preston come into this having played 80 games, going 32W 19D 29L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.41 PPG from 80 outings (30W 23D 27L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Preston on 1.44 PPG, Hull City on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Preston's home form reads 16W 10D 14L across their last 40 home games, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 1.35 points per game from their last 40 away games (14W 12D 14L).
The Goals Picture
Preston are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.26 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 80 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preston
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
Preston (Home) vs Hull City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Preston
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Preston vs Hull City Form FAQs
What form are Preston and Hull City in coming into this match?
Preston have gone 32W 19D 29L in their last 80 games (1.44 PPG), while Hull City have gone 30W 23D 27L in their last 80 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preston at home or Hull City away?
Preston's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preston at home: 1.45 PPG; Hull City away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 20 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Aug 2021, when Hull City won Preston 1-4 Hull City.
Preston's record when hosting Hull City specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Preston
4
Draws
4
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Preston vs Hull City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Hull City?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Preston have won 2, Hull City have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Preston and Hull City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 January 2026: Preston 0-3 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Preston and Hull City?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Preston 58%, Hull City 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Preston) and 58% (Hull City). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Preston have failed to score in 32% of games; Hull City in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preston home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Preston vs Hull City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Preston and Hull City matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Preston's games and 60% of Hull City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Preston and Hull City matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Preston's matches and 58% of Hull City's.
Do Preston and Hull City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Preston's recent matches and 68% of Hull City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Preston's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Deepdale, Regular Season - 35, as Preston and Hull City drew 0-0 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.60 xG and Hull City 1.79 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Preston fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Hull City landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 1.11 / defence 1.24 against Hull City attack 1.14 / defence 1.05, drawn from 80/80 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preston 35% | Draw 23% | Hull City 43%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 51%, Hull City 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preston's trading profile (80 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hull City's trading profile (80 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Preston 1.44 PPG, Hull City 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Preston (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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