Norwich 1-0 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Norwich at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Norwich vs Sunderland encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Sunderland travel to Carrow Road to take on Norwich. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 March 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Norwich stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Carrow Road, Norwich have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Sunderland have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sunderland's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Norwich carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Norwich, 2 for Sunderland and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 1–3 with Sunderland winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Norwich in-play tendencies (80 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Sunderland in-play tendencies (80 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Norwich 58% versus Sunderland 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Norwich 52% | Sunderland 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norwich 1.69 xG and Sunderland 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norwich attack 1.337 / defence 0.886 | Sunderland attack 0.754 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.269. Norwich carry an above-average attack strength of 1.337 — their λ of 1.69 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 80 Norwich games / 80 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norwich 57% | Draw 24% | Sunderland 19%. Fair-value odds: Norwich 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Sunderland 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Norwich (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Norwich are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Norwich 60% | Sunderland 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norwich vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Carrow Road • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norwich 57% | Draw 24% | Sunderland 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 47% | xG Norwich 1.69 / Sunderland 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Norwich attack 1.337 / def 0.886 | Sunderland attack 0.754 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Norwich (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Norwich xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Sunderland xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norwich vs Sunderland kick off?
Norwich vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Carrow Road.
What was the final score in Norwich vs Sunderland?
Norwich 1 - 0 Sunderland.
Where is Norwich vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Carrow Road.
What competition is Norwich vs Sunderland part of?
Norwich vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Norwich vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Norwich a 57% chance of winning, Sunderland a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Norwich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norwich vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Norwich and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Norwich vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norwich and Sunderland?
Record (3 meetings): Norwich 1W | Draws 0 | Sunderland 2W.
What form are Norwich and Sunderland in?
Norwich (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Sunderland (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Norwich's attack rating (1.34) and Sunderland's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sunderland's attack versus Norwich's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 80/80 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Norwich Win
57%
1.74
24%
4.16
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Norwich xG
Total xG
2.54
0.85
Sunderland xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
3%
28.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 11.3 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norwich vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Norwich and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Norwich and 0.85 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Norwich vs Sunderland?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Norwich come into this having played 80 games, going 32W 18D 30L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D.
On the other side, Sunderland sit at 1.44 PPG from 80 outings (32W 19D 29L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Norwich on 1.42 PPG, Sunderland on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Norwich's home form reads 19W 7D 14L across 40 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Sunderland have taken 1.32 points per game from 40 outings (14W 11D 15L).
Goals in Recent Form
Norwich are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.40 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 80 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norwich
Current Season
Sunderland
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Norwich and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Norwich have gone 32W 18D 30L in their last 80 games (1.42 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 32W 19D 29L in their last 80 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norwich at home or Sunderland away?
Norwich's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norwich at home: 1.60 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Norwich's record when hosting Sunderland specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Norwich
1
Draws
3
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norwich and Sunderland?
From 6 meetings on record, Norwich have won 2, Sunderland have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Norwich and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2025, when Norwich 0-0 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Norwich and Sunderland?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Norwich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norwich 50%, Sunderland 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Norwich) and 45% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Norwich have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norwich home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Norwich play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Norwich's recent matches and 52% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Norwich vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Norwich's recent games and 45% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Norwich and Sunderland tend to score early?
Norwich have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Norwich edge out Sunderland 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norwich beat Sunderland 1-0 at Carrow Road, Regular Season - 35, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norwich 1.69 xG and Sunderland 0.85 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sunderland landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norwich attack 1.34 / defence 0.89 against Sunderland attack 0.75 / defence 0.92, drawn from 80/80 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norwich 57% | Draw 24% | Sunderland 19%, with Norwich to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norwich 52%, Sunderland 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norwich's trading profile (80 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Sunderland's trading profile (80 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Norwich 1.42 PPG, Sunderland 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Norwich win broke the near-deadlock. Norwich (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.