Sunderland 0-1 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sunderland at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sunderland vs Hull City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadium of Light plays host to Sunderland versus Hull City in Championship, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Saturday 22 February 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Sunderland's overall Championship record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Sunderland at Stadium of Light this season: 5W 5D 0L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hull City (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Hull City's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Sunderland's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Hull City's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Sunderland 2W, Hull City 1W, 2D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 1–0 with Sunderland winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Sunderland half-time and goal-timing data (78 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Hull City half-time and goal-timing data (78 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 46% versus Hull City 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 46% | Hull City 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.38 xG and Hull City 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.073 / defence 0.969 | Hull City attack 1.000 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.032. Data: 79 Sunderland games / 78 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 45% | Draw 28% | Hull City 27%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Hull City 3.70. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sunderland as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sunderland 70% | Hull City 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 45% | Draw 28% | Hull City 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Sunderland 1.38 / Hull City 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 1.073 / def 0.969 | Hull City attack 1.000 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Hull City xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Hull City kick off?
Sunderland vs Hull City kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Hull City?
Sunderland 0 - 1 Hull City.
Where is Sunderland vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Hull City part of?
Sunderland vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 45% chance of winning, Hull City a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sunderland and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Hull City?
Record (5 meetings): Sunderland 2W | Draws 2 | Hull City 1W.
What form are Sunderland and Hull City in?
Sunderland (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Hull City (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sunderland's attack at 1.07x the league average against Hull City's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (1.00x) against Sunderland's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 79/78 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
45%
2.22
28%
3.56
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.38
1.00
Hull City xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
17%
6.04
7%
14.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.00 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sunderland's recent record stands at 33W 19D 26L from 78 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Hull City, meanwhile, have gone 26W 22D 30L across 78 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Sunderland against 1.28 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sunderland have managed 20W 8D 10L from 38 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hull City's away record stands at 16W 6D 16L across 38 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sunderland are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.28 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 78 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Hull City in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 33W 19D 26L in their last 78 games (1.51 PPG), while Hull City have gone 26W 22D 30L in their last 78 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Hull City away?
Sunderland's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.79 PPG; Hull City away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Hull City in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sunderland have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sunderland
2
Draws
2
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Hull City?
From 6 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 2, Hull City have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Sunderland 0-1 Hull City.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 45%, Hull City 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Sunderland) and 58% (Hull City). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Sunderland have failed to score in 26% of games; Hull City in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Sunderland's recent matches and 55% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sunderland vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Sunderland's matches and 58% of Hull City's.
Do Sunderland and Hull City tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Hull City in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hull City defy the odds to beat Sunderland 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Sunderland 0-1 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 34, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.38 xG and Hull City 1.00 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sunderland fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.07 / defence 0.97 against Hull City attack 1.00 / defence 0.94, drawn from 79/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 45% | Draw 28% | Hull City 27%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Hull City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 46%, Hull City 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hull City's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.51 PPG, Hull City 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Hull City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.