Cardiff 1-0 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hull City at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cardiff vs Hull City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Hull City travel to Cardiff City Stadium to take on Cardiff. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 25 February 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Cardiff have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Cardiff's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Cardiff City Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hull City stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Hull City's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Cardiff) versus 1.40 (Hull City). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Hull City have the better historical record — 7 wins from 7 previous contests against 0 for Cardiff.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 1–4 with Hull City winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Hull City have won 7 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Cardiff trading profile (79 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Hull City trading profile (79 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 51% versus Hull City 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 48% | Hull City 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.07 xG and Hull City 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.912 / defence 1.108 | Hull City attack 0.992 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.031. Data: 79 Cardiff games / 79 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 34% | Draw 30% | Hull City 37%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Hull City 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hull City at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cardiff 60% | Hull City 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Feb 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 34% | Draw 30% | Hull City 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Cardiff 1.07 / Hull City 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.912 / def 1.108 | Hull City attack 0.992 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.031 • Poisson stance: Hull City (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Hull City xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Hull City kick off?
Cardiff vs Hull City kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 25 February 2025 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Hull City?
Cardiff 1 - 0 Hull City.
Where is Cardiff vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Hull City part of?
Cardiff vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 34% chance of winning, Hull City a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cardiff and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Hull City?
Record (7 meetings): Cardiff 0W | Draws 0 | Hull City 7W.
What form are Cardiff and Hull City in?
Cardiff (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Hull City (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cardiff's attack rating (0.91) and Hull City's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hull City's attack versus Cardiff's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 79/79 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
34%
2.97
30%
3.38
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.20
1.13
Hull City xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
11%
9.24
13%
7.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 12.5 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.13 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cardiff come into this having played 79 games, going 26W 17D 36L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-D.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.30 PPG from 79 outings (27W 22D 30L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cardiff on 1.20 PPG, Hull City on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cardiff's home form reads 16W 6D 17L across 39 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 1.46 points per game from 39 outings (17W 6D 16L).
The Goals Picture
Cardiff are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.28 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 79 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Hull City in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 26W 17D 36L in their last 79 games (1.20 PPG), while Hull City have gone 27W 22D 30L in their last 79 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Hull City away?
Hull City's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.38 PPG; Hull City away: 1.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cardiff and Hull City runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Dec 2023, when Hull City won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cardiff's record when hosting Hull City specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cardiff
0
Draws
7
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Hull City?
From 8 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 1, Hull City have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2025, when Cardiff 1-0 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Hull City?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 44%, Hull City 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Cardiff) and 56% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Cardiff have failed to score in 33% of games; Hull City in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Cardiff's recent matches and 54% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Cardiff's recent games and 56% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and Hull City tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Hull City in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cardiff defy the odds to beat Hull City 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cardiff beat Hull City 1-0 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.07 xG and Hull City 1.13 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hull City landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.91 / defence 1.11 against Hull City attack 0.99 / defence 0.86, drawn from 79/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 34% | Draw 30% | Hull City 37%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Cardiff win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 48%, Hull City 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Hull City's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.20 PPG, Hull City 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.