Plymouth 1-1 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plymouth at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plymouth vs Cardiff fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Plymouth and Cardiff meet at Home Park in Championship, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 February 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Plymouth's overall Championship record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Plymouth's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Home Park this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cardiff have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Cardiff away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Plymouth register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Cardiff in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Plymouth, 1 for Cardiff and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 0–5 with Cardiff winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Plymouth half-time and goal-timing data (78 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Cardiff half-time and goal-timing data (78 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 51% versus Cardiff 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 54% | Cardiff 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 2.49 xG and Cardiff 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.251 / defence 1.512 | Cardiff attack 1.053 / defence 1.466. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.032. Plymouth carry an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — their λ of 2.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cardiff bring a strong defensive rating of 1.466 — this is suppressing Plymouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 79 Plymouth games / 78 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 56% | Draw 19% | Cardiff 25%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 1.79 | Draw 5.26 | Cardiff 4.00. The model has a clear lean to Plymouth (56%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 4.14. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.14 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.49 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plymouth are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.14 combined xG gives a 78% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 74%. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 70% | Cardiff 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 56% | Draw 19% | Cardiff 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 74% | xG Plymouth 2.49 / Cardiff 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.251 / def 1.512 | Cardiff attack 1.053 / def 1.466 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.49
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Cardiff xG
74%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Cardiff kick off?
Plymouth vs Cardiff kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Cardiff?
Plymouth 1 - 1 Cardiff.
Where is Plymouth vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Cardiff part of?
Plymouth vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 56% chance of winning, Cardiff a 25% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Plymouth and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Cardiff?
Record (3 meetings): Plymouth 1W | Draws 1 | Cardiff 1W.
What form are Plymouth and Cardiff in?
Plymouth (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Cardiff (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Plymouth's attack at 1.25x the league average against Cardiff's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 2.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cardiff's attack (1.05x) against Plymouth's defence (1.51x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 79/78 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.4%), 3-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
56%
1.78
19%
5.18
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
6.8%
Home win
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.49
Plymouth xG
Total xG
4.14
1.64
Cardiff xG
1.78
56%
Home win
5.18
19%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.88
Clean Sheet
19%
5.17
8%
12.10
Win to Nil
11%
9.21
2%
49.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.64 for Cardiff, a combined total of 4.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Cardiff?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 78 outings, Plymouth have picked up 0.99 PPG on a 18W 23D 37L record — D-W-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Cardiff's form line: 26W 16D 36L from 78 games, 1.21 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.99 PPG for Plymouth against 1.21 for Cardiff. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Plymouth have posted 1.47 PPG from 38 outings (15W 11D 12L). That's noticeably better than their 0.99 PPG overall — Plymouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cardiff have gone 10W 9D 19L from 38 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Plymouth are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.13 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 78 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
Cardiff
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 18W 23D 37L in their last 78 games (0.99 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 26W 16D 36L in their last 78 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Cardiff away?
Plymouth's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.47 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cardiff won 5-0 on 19 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plymouth have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cardiff — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Plymouth
2
Draws
2
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Cardiff?
From 6 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 2, Cardiff have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Plymouth 5-2 Cardiff.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 60%, Cardiff 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Plymouth) and 55% (Cardiff). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cardiff in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Cardiff?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Plymouth's games and 55% of Cardiff's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plymouth vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Plymouth's matches and 55% of Cardiff's.
Do Plymouth and Cardiff tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plymouth and Cardiff share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Home Park, Regular Season - 34, as Plymouth and Cardiff drew 1-1 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 2.49 xG and Cardiff 1.64 xG, a combined 4.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Plymouth fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.25 / defence 1.51 against Cardiff attack 1.05 / defence 1.47, drawn from 79/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 56% | Draw 19% | Cardiff 25%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 54%, Cardiff 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Cardiff's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 0.99 PPG, Cardiff 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cardiff (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.