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Stalemate at Stoke City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stoke City and QPR finished level at 0-0 at Bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.50 xG and QPR 0.89 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stoke City fell 1.5 short of their projected output. QPR landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 0.99 / defence 0.86 against QPR attack 0.90 / defence 1.09, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stoke City 51% | Draw 27% | QPR 22%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 39%, QPR 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stoke City's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

QPR's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.26 PPG, QPR 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stoke City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights