🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Stoke City at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stoke City vs QPR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 27 as Stoke City welcome QPR to Bet365 Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Stoke City — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Stoke City, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Stoke City's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Bet365 Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Championship games this season, QPR have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Championship this season, QPR have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Stoke City) versus 1.60 (QPR). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Stoke City, 3 for QPR and 2 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with QPR winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Stoke City in-play tendencies (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

QPR in-play tendencies (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stoke City 42% versus QPR 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stoke City 39% | QPR 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stoke City 1.50 xG and QPR 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stoke City attack 0.987 / defence 0.861 | QPR attack 0.901 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.140. Data: 72 Stoke City games / 72 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Stoke City 51% | Draw 27% | QPR 22%. Fair-value odds: Stoke City 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | QPR 4.55. Stoke City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Stoke City are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stoke City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Stoke City 50% | QPR 60%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights