Stoke City 1-3 Middlesbrough – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Stoke City at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stoke City vs Middlesbrough encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Middlesbrough travel to bet365 Stadium to take on Stoke City in Championship (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 25 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Stoke City stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Stoke City have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Middlesbrough have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Middlesbrough's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Stoke City carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Stoke City have won 2, Middlesbrough 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2024, ended Stoke City 0–2 Middlesbrough — a Middlesbrough win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Stoke City trading profile (last 79 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Middlesbrough trading profile (last 79 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stoke City 44% versus Middlesbrough 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stoke City 42% | Middlesbrough 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stoke City 1.48 xG and Middlesbrough 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stoke City attack 0.890 / defence 1.021 | Middlesbrough attack 1.341 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.031. Middlesbrough's defence rating of 1.211 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stoke City's projected output up. Middlesbrough have an above-average attack rating of 1.341, which lifts their away xG to 1.41. Data: built from Stoke City's last 79 games and Middlesbrough's last 79.
Result probabilities: Stoke City 39% | Draw 25% | Middlesbrough 36%. Fair-value odds: Stoke City 2.58 | Draw 3.96 | Middlesbrough 2.79. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stoke City are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stoke City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Stoke City's last 10 home games and Middlesbrough's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stoke City 40% (last 10 home games) | Middlesbrough 90% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stoke City vs Middlesbrough | Competition: Championship, matchday 31 | Venue: bet365 Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stoke City 39% | Draw 25% | Middlesbrough 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Stoke City 1.48 / Middlesbrough 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Stoke City attack 0.890 / def 1.021 | Middlesbrough attack 1.341 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.031 • Poisson stance: Stoke City (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Stoke City xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Middlesbrough xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stoke City vs Middlesbrough FAQs
What time does Stoke City vs Middlesbrough kick off?
Stoke City vs Middlesbrough kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 25 February 2025 at bet365 Stadium.
What was the final score in Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?
Stoke City 1 - 3 Middlesbrough.
Where is Stoke City vs Middlesbrough being played?
The match is being played at bet365 Stadium.
What competition is Stoke City vs Middlesbrough part of?
Stoke City vs Middlesbrough is a Championship fixture (matchday 31) (England).
Who is favourite to win Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?
Our statistical model gives Stoke City a 39% chance of winning, Middlesbrough a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Stoke City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Stoke City and Middlesbrough will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Stoke City vs Middlesbrough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stoke City's attack at 0.89x the league average against Middlesbrough's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Middlesbrough's attack versus Stoke City's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stoke City's last 79 games and Middlesbrough's last 79 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stoke City Win
39%
2.58
25%
3.96
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Stoke City xG
Total xG
2.89
1.41
Middlesbrough xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
9%
10.56
8%
12.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.6 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stoke City vs Middlesbrough Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Stoke City and Middlesbrough expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Stoke City and 1.41 for Middlesbrough, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 79 outings, Stoke City have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 23W 22D 34L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Middlesbrough's form line: 32W 17D 30L from 79 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stoke City on 1.15 PPG, Middlesbrough on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stoke City have posted 1.33 PPG from their last 39 home games (13W 13D 13L).
On the road, Middlesbrough have gone 15W 8D 16L from their last 39 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Stoke City are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Middlesbrough are on 1.54 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 79 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stoke City
Current Season
Middlesbrough
Current Season
Stoke City (Home) vs Middlesbrough (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stoke City
Current Season
Middlesbrough
Current Season
❓ Stoke City vs Middlesbrough Form FAQs
What form are Stoke City and Middlesbrough in coming into this match?
Stoke City have gone 23W 22D 34L in their last 79 games (1.15 PPG), while Middlesbrough have gone 32W 17D 30L in their last 79 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stoke City at home or Middlesbrough away?
Middlesbrough's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stoke City at home: 1.33 PPG; Middlesbrough away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 13 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Middlesbrough have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Stoke City's record when hosting Middlesbrough specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Stoke City
3
Draws
5
Middlesbrough
Recent Meetings
❓ Stoke City vs Middlesbrough H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Middlesbrough?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Stoke City have won 2, Middlesbrough have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stoke City and Middlesbrough last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 October 2026: Stoke City 2-3 Middlesbrough.
Who has won more matches between Stoke City and Middlesbrough?
Middlesbrough have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stoke City see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Middlesbrough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stoke City 41%, Middlesbrough 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Stoke City) and 67% (Middlesbrough). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stoke City keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Stoke City have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stoke City home games / Middlesbrough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stoke City vs Middlesbrough Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stoke City and Middlesbrough matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 41% of Stoke City's games and 72% of Middlesbrough's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Stoke City and Middlesbrough matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Stoke City's matches and 67% of Middlesbrough's.
Do Stoke City and Middlesbrough matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Stoke City's recent matches and 77% of Middlesbrough's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Middlesbrough cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Stoke City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Middlesbrough beat Stoke City 1-3 at bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.48 xG and Middlesbrough 1.41 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Middlesbrough outscored their 1.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 0.89 / defence 1.02 against Middlesbrough attack 1.34 / defence 1.21, drawn from 79/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stoke City 39% | Draw 25% | Middlesbrough 36%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Middlesbrough win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 42%, Middlesbrough 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stoke City's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Middlesbrough's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.15 PPG, Middlesbrough 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Middlesbrough win broke the near-deadlock. Stoke City (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Championship fixtures — matchday 31
All Championship fixtures →
More UK football predictions →