Middlesbrough 1-0 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Middlesbrough at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Middlesbrough vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Derby travel to Riverside Stadium to take on Middlesbrough. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 March 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Middlesbrough have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Middlesbrough's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Riverside Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Middlesbrough are significantly better at Riverside Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Derby — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Derby's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Middlesbrough are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Middlesbrough have won 1, Derby 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Derby winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Middlesbrough in-play tendencies (80 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Derby in-play tendencies (80 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Middlesbrough 58% versus Derby 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Middlesbrough 51% | Derby 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Middlesbrough 1.75 xG and Derby 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Middlesbrough attack 1.003 / defence 1.077 | Derby attack 0.768 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.045. Derby bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing Middlesbrough's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 80 Middlesbrough games / 34 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Middlesbrough 58% | Draw 24% | Derby 18%. Fair-value odds: Middlesbrough 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Derby 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Middlesbrough (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Middlesbrough are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Middlesbrough 50% | Derby 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Middlesbrough vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Riverside Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Mar 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Middlesbrough 58% | Draw 24% | Derby 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 48% | xG Middlesbrough 1.75 / Derby 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Middlesbrough attack 1.003 / def 1.077 | Derby attack 0.768 / def 1.283 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.045 • Poisson stance: Middlesbrough (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Middlesbrough xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Derby xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Middlesbrough vs Derby kick off?
Middlesbrough vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Riverside Stadium.
What was the final score in Middlesbrough vs Derby?
Middlesbrough 1 - 0 Derby.
Where is Middlesbrough vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Riverside Stadium.
What competition is Middlesbrough vs Derby part of?
Middlesbrough vs Derby is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Middlesbrough vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Middlesbrough a 58% chance of winning, Derby a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Middlesbrough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Middlesbrough and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Middlesbrough vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Derby?
Record (3 meetings): Middlesbrough 1W | Draws 1 | Derby 1W.
What form are Middlesbrough and Derby in?
Middlesbrough (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Derby (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Middlesbrough's attack at 1.00x the league average against Derby's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Middlesbrough's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 80/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Middlesbrough Win
58%
1.72
24%
4.15
18%
5.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Middlesbrough xG
Total xG
2.62
0.86
Derby xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
5.60
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
24%
4.09
3%
32.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.1 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Middlesbrough vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Middlesbrough and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Middlesbrough and 0.86 for Derby, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Middlesbrough vs Derby?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Middlesbrough's recent record stands at 33W 17D 30L from 80 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 35W 16D 29L across 80 games — 1.51 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Middlesbrough on 1.45 PPG, Derby on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Middlesbrough have managed 17W 9D 14L from 40 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 14W 9D 17L across 40 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Middlesbrough are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.39 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Derby in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 80 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Middlesbrough
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Middlesbrough and Derby in coming into this match?
Middlesbrough have gone 33W 17D 30L in their last 80 games (1.45 PPG), while Derby have gone 35W 16D 29L in their last 80 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Middlesbrough at home or Derby away?
Middlesbrough's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Middlesbrough at home: 1.50 PPG; Derby away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Middlesbrough or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Middlesbrough have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Derby in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 1 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2022, when Middlesbrough won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Middlesbrough's record when hosting Derby specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Middlesbrough
1
Draws
2
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, Middlesbrough have won 3, Derby have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Middlesbrough and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2026, when Derby 1-0 Middlesbrough.
Who has won more matches between Middlesbrough and Derby?
Middlesbrough have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Middlesbrough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Middlesbrough 42%, Derby 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Middlesbrough) and 50% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Middlesbrough keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Middlesbrough have failed to score in 28% of games; Derby in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Middlesbrough home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Middlesbrough play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Middlesbrough's recent matches and 50% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Middlesbrough vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Middlesbrough's recent games and 50% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Middlesbrough and Derby tend to score early?
Middlesbrough have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Derby in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Middlesbrough edge out Derby 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Middlesbrough beat Derby 1-0 at Riverside Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Middlesbrough 1.75 xG and Derby 0.86 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Derby landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Middlesbrough attack 1.00 / defence 1.08 against Derby attack 0.77 / defence 1.28, drawn from 80/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Middlesbrough 58% | Draw 24% | Derby 18%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Middlesbrough 51%, Derby 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Middlesbrough's trading profile (80 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Derby's trading profile (80 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Middlesbrough 1.45 PPG, Derby 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Middlesbrough win broke the near-deadlock. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.