Burnley 1-0 Oxford United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burnley at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burnley vs Oxford United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Burnley and Oxford United meet at Turf Moor in Championship, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 4 February 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Burnley's overall Championship record this term: 5W 5D 0L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.20 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Burnley at Turf Moor this season: 3W 7D 0L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Turf Moor. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Oxford United (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Championship this season, Oxford United have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Burnley, 1.90 for Oxford United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Burnley have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Oxford United in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Burnley 0W, Oxford United 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Burnley — key trading statistics (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Oxford United — key trading statistics (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 46% versus Oxford United 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 43% | Oxford United 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 0.96 xG and Oxford United 0.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.626 / defence 0.613 | Oxford United attack 0.671 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.040. Burnley's attack strength of 0.626 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Burnley's defence rating of 0.613 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 30 Burnley games / 30 Oxford United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 47% | Draw 38% | Oxford United 15%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.13 | Draw 2.63 | Oxford United 6.67. Burnley hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (38%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 16% | BTTS probability 22% | Total xG 1.39. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 84% probability — total xG of 1.39 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 78% — Oxford United's lower xG of 0.43 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 22%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Burnley are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 38% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burnley if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 16% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 22% on No. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 20% | Oxford United 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Oxford United | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 Feb 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 47% | Draw 38% | Oxford United 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 16% | BTTS 22% | xG Burnley 0.96 / Oxford United 0.43 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.626 / def 0.613 | Oxford United attack 0.671 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Burnley (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
0.43
Oxford United xG
22%
BTTS
41%
Over 1.5
16%
Over 2.5
5%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Oxford United kick off?
Burnley vs Oxford United kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 4 February 2025 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Oxford United?
Burnley 1 - 0 Oxford United.
Where is Burnley vs Oxford United being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Oxford United part of?
Burnley vs Oxford United is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Oxford United?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 47% chance of winning, Oxford United a 15% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Oxford United?
Our model estimates a 22% probability that both Burnley and Oxford United will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Oxford United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 16%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Oxford United?
Record (1 meetings): Burnley 0W | Draws 1 | Oxford United 0W.
What form are Burnley and Oxford United in?
Burnley (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Oxford United (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Burnley's attack rating (0.63) and Oxford United's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Oxford United's attack (0.67x) against Burnley's defence (0.61x) — and the away total comes out at 0.43.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 26.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (22.6%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 60% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
47%
2.12
38%
2.66
15%
6.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
24.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
24.0%
Home win
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Burnley xG
Total xG
1.39
0.43
Oxford United xG
2.12
47%
Home win
2.66
38%
Draw
6.52
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
41%
Over 1.5
2.44
59%
Under 1.5
1.69
16%
Over 2.5
6.25
84%
Under 2.5
1.19
5%
Over 3.5
20.00
95%
Under 3.5
1.05
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
22%
BTTS Yes
4.51
78%
BTTS No
1.29
Clean Sheet
65%
1.53
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
31%
3.26
6%
17.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24.9 | 10.6 | 2.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 24.0 | 10.3 | 2.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Oxford United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 26.2%.
How many goals are Burnley and Oxford United expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Burnley and 0.43 for Oxford United, a combined total of 1.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Oxford United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Burnley's recent record stands at 20W 22D 26L from 68 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-D in the last five.
Oxford United, meanwhile, have gone 24W 22D 22L across 68 games — 1.38 PPG, with D-W-W-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Burnley against 1.38 for Oxford United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Burnley have managed 8W 12D 13L from 33 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Oxford United's away record stands at 9W 10D 14L across 33 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burnley are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Oxford United are on 1.38 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Current Season
Oxford United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Oxford United in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 20W 22D 26L in their last 68 games (1.21 PPG), while Oxford United have gone 24W 22D 22L in their last 68 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Oxford United away?
Oxford United's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.09 PPG; Oxford United away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Burnley or Oxford United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Oxford United in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Burnley
1
Draws
0
Oxford United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Oxford United?
From 2 meetings on record, Burnley have won 1, Oxford United have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Oxford United last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2025, when Burnley 1-0 Oxford United.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Oxford United?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Burnley see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Oxford United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 46%, Oxford United 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Burnley) and 48% (Oxford United).
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Burnley have failed to score in 39% of games; Oxford United in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Oxford United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Oxford United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Burnley's recent matches and 54% of Oxford United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Oxford United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Burnley's recent games and 48% of Oxford United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Oxford United tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Oxford United in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Burnley edge out Oxford United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Oxford United 1-0 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 31, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 0.96 xG and Oxford United 0.43 xG, a combined 1.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.63 / defence 0.61 against Oxford United attack 0.67 / defence 1.11, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 47% | Draw 38% | Oxford United 15%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 16%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 41% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 22% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 43%, Oxford United 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Oxford United's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.21 PPG, Oxford United 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Oxford United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.