Ipswich 0-0 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ipswich at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ipswich vs QPR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ipswich host QPR at Portman Road in Championship (matchday 25). Kick-off is Friday 29 December 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Ipswich — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Ipswich have gone 8W 2D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Ipswich are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, QPR stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
QPR's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Ipswich carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Ipswich have won 1, QPR 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended Ipswich 1–0 QPR — a Ipswich win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Ipswich in-play and half-time data (last 70 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 58%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
QPR in-play and half-time data (last 70 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 51% versus QPR 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 60% | QPR 47%). Note also that QPR surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Ipswich recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 58% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 2.04 xG and QPR 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 1.410 / defence 1.191 | QPR attack 0.720 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.196. Ipswich carry an above-average attack rating of 1.410 — their 2.04 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. QPR's attack rating of 0.720 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Data: built from Ipswich's last 24 games and QPR's last 70.
Result probabilities: Ipswich 61% | Draw 21% | QPR 18%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 1.65 | Draw 4.77 | QPR 5.47. The model has a clear lean to Ipswich (61%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ipswich at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ipswich's last 10 home games and QPR's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ipswich 90% (last 10 home games) | QPR 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs QPR | Competition: Championship, matchday 25 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Friday 29 December 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 61% | Draw 21% | QPR 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Ipswich 2.04 / QPR 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 1.410 / def 1.191 | QPR attack 0.720 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
1.03
QPR xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ipswich vs QPR FAQs
What time does Ipswich vs QPR kick off?
Ipswich vs QPR kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 29 December 2023 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs QPR?
Ipswich 0 - 0 QPR.
Where is Ipswich vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs QPR part of?
Ipswich vs QPR is a Championship fixture (matchday 25) (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 61% chance of winning, QPR a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Ipswich and QPR will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ipswich vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ipswich's attack rating (1.41) and QPR's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 2.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Ipswich's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ipswich's last 24 games and QPR's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
61%
1.65
21%
4.77
18%
5.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Ipswich xG
Total xG
3.07
1.03
QPR xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
5.47
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
13%
7.68
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
2%
42.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ipswich vs QPR Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Ipswich and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Ipswich and 1.03 for QPR, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs QPR?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ipswich's recent record stands at 44W 19D 7L from 70 games, a 2.16 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-D in the last five.
QPR, meanwhile, have gone 18W 16D 36L across 70 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ipswich by 1.16 — a real, if not enormous, edge over QPR heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ipswich have managed 25W 8D 2L from their last 35 home games — 2.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
QPR's away record stands at 10W 8D 17L across their last 35 away games, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ipswich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ipswich are averaging 2.13 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 0.91 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Blended
QPR
Blended
Ipswich (Home) vs QPR (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ipswich
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Ipswich vs QPR Form FAQs
What form are Ipswich and QPR in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 44W 19D 7L in their last 70 games (2.16 PPG), while QPR have gone 18W 16D 36L in their last 70 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or QPR away?
Ipswich's home record (2.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 2.37 PPG; QPR away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Ipswich or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, QPR in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2023. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Ipswich have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Nov 2025, when Ipswich won QPR 1-4 Ipswich.
Ipswich's record when hosting QPR specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Ipswich
1
Draws
0
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Ipswich vs QPR H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and QPR?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Ipswich have won 3, QPR have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Ipswich and QPR last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Ipswich 3-0 QPR.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and QPR?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 54%, QPR 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Ipswich) and 46% (QPR). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 49% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ipswich keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; QPR in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ipswich vs QPR Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ipswich and QPR matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Ipswich's recent matches and 46% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ipswich and QPR matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Ipswich's matches and 46% of QPR's.
Do Ipswich and QPR matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 91% of Ipswich's recent matches and 66% of QPR's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ipswich's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich and QPR finished level at 0-0 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 25, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 2.04 xG and QPR 1.03 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ipswich fell 2.0 short of their projected output. QPR landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.41 / defence 1.19 against QPR attack 0.72 / defence 1.02, drawn from 24/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 61% | Draw 21% | QPR 18%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 60%, QPR 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
QPR's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ipswich arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ipswich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.66 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.51 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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