Stoke City 1-3 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hull City at 35% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stoke City vs Hull City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stoke City host Hull City at bet365 Stadium in Championship (matchday 8). Kick-off is Sunday 24 September 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Stoke City stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Stoke City have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Hull City — last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Hull City have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hull City are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Stoke City: 3 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Hull City, with 1 draw.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 11 Feb 2023, ended Stoke City 0–0 Hull City — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Stoke City an edge — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Stoke City trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Hull City trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stoke City 40% versus Hull City 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stoke City 42% | Hull City 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stoke City 1.19 xG and Hull City 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stoke City attack 0.926 / defence 0.998 | Hull City attack 1.022 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.181. Data: built from Stoke City's last 53 games and Hull City's last 53.
Result probabilities: Stoke City 34% | Draw 32% | Hull City 35%. Fair-value odds: Stoke City 2.96 | Draw 3.17 | Hull City 2.88. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Stoke City have the better head-to-head record in our data (3 wins to 0), yet Hull City are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Hull City as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Stoke City 40% (last 10 home games) | Hull City 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stoke City vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, matchday 8 | Venue: bet365 Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 September 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stoke City 34% | Draw 32% | Hull City 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Stoke City 1.19 / Hull City 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Stoke City attack 0.926 / def 0.998 | Hull City attack 1.022 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Hull City (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Stoke City xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Hull City xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stoke City vs Hull City FAQs
What time does Stoke City vs Hull City kick off?
Stoke City vs Hull City kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 24 September 2023 at bet365 Stadium.
What was the final score in Stoke City vs Hull City?
Stoke City 1 - 3 Hull City.
Where is Stoke City vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at bet365 Stadium.
What competition is Stoke City vs Hull City part of?
Stoke City vs Hull City is a Championship fixture (matchday 8) (England).
Who is favourite to win Stoke City vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Stoke City a 34% chance of winning, Hull City a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stoke City vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Stoke City and Hull City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Stoke City vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stoke City's attack rating (0.93) and Hull City's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hull City's attack versus Stoke City's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stoke City's last 53 games and Hull City's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
34%
2.96
32%
3.17
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Stoke City xG
Total xG
2.39
1.20
Hull City xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
10%
9.86
11%
9.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.0 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stoke City vs Hull City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stoke City vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Stoke City and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Stoke City and 1.20 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Stoke City vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Stoke City have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 16W 12D 25L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Hull City's form line: 17W 19D 17L from 53 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stoke City on 1.13 PPG, Hull City on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stoke City have posted 1.12 PPG from their last 26 home games (8W 5D 13L).
On the road, Hull City have gone 7W 10D 9L from their last 26 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Stoke City are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.15 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stoke City
Early Season
Hull City
Early Season
Stoke City (Home) vs Hull City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stoke City
Early Season
Hull City
Early Season
❓ Stoke City vs Hull City Form FAQs
What form are Stoke City and Hull City in coming into this match?
Stoke City have gone 16W 12D 25L in their last 53 games (1.13 PPG), while Hull City have gone 17W 19D 17L in their last 53 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stoke City at home or Hull City away?
Hull City's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stoke City at home: 1.12 PPG; Hull City away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Stoke City or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stoke City have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Hull City in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 1 January 2026, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Sep 2022, when Stoke City won Hull City 0-3 Stoke City.
Stoke City's record when hosting Hull City specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Stoke City
1
Draws
3
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Stoke City vs Hull City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Hull City?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Stoke City have won 6, Hull City have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Stoke City and Hull City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 January 2026: Hull City 0-1 Stoke City.
Who has won more matches between Stoke City and Hull City?
Stoke City have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stoke City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Hull City see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stoke City 35%, Hull City 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Stoke City) and 46% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Hull City in 31%; Stoke City have failed to score in 46% of games; Hull City in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stoke City home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stoke City vs Hull City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stoke City and Hull City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Stoke City's recent matches and 54% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stoke City and Hull City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Stoke City's recent games and 46% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stoke City and Hull City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Stoke City's recent matches and 58% of Hull City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Stoke City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Stoke City 1-3 at bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.19 xG and Hull City 1.20 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Hull City outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 0.93 / defence 1.00 against Hull City attack 1.02 / defence 0.90, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stoke City 34% | Draw 32% | Hull City 35%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 42%, Hull City 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stoke City's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Hull City's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.13 PPG, Hull City 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Stoke City (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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