Hull City 0-0 Leeds – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Hull City at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs Leeds encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hull City host Leeds at The MKM Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 20 September 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hull City stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hull City have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hull City at The MKM Stadium this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The MKM Stadium.
Across all Championship games this season, Leeds have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Leeds have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Championship this season, Leeds have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Hull City have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Hull City in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Leeds in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 50% versus Leeds 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 39% | Leeds 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.56 xG and Leeds 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 1.067 / defence 0.987 | Leeds attack 1.247 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.208. Leeds have an above-average attack strength of 1.247 — the away xG of 1.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Hull City games / 6 Leeds games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 39% | Draw 26% | Leeds 36%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Leeds 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hull City are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hull City 50% | Leeds 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Leeds | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Sep 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 39% | Draw 26% | Leeds 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Hull City 1.56 / Leeds 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 1.067 / def 0.987 | Leeds attack 1.247 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Hull City (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Leeds xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Leeds kick off?
Hull City vs Leeds kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 20 September 2023 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Leeds?
Hull City 0 - 0 Leeds.
Where is Hull City vs Leeds being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Leeds part of?
Hull City vs Leeds is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Leeds?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 39% chance of winning, Leeds a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Leeds?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Hull City and Leeds will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Leeds have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Leeds?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hull City and Leeds in?
Hull City (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Leeds (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hull City's attack at 1.07x the league average against Leeds's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Leeds's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
39%
2.59
26%
3.89
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Hull City xG
Total xG
3.04
1.49
Leeds xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
9%
11.45
8%
13.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.0 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Leeds?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Hull City and Leeds expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Hull City and 1.49 for Leeds, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Leeds?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hull City come into this having played 44 games, going 14W 16D 14L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Hull City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Leeds sit at 0.91 PPG from 44 outings (9W 13D 22L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Leeds, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hull City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Leeds — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Hull City's home form reads 7W 8D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Leeds have taken 0.68 points per game from 22 outings (4W 3D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hull City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hull City are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Leeds are on 1.32 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Leeds in 66%.
Last 44 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Early Season
Leeds
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Leeds in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 14W 16D 14L in their last 44 games (1.32 PPG), while Leeds have gone 9W 13D 22L in their last 44 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Leeds away?
Hull City's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.32 PPG; Leeds away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Hull City or Leeds been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Leeds in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Hull City's record when hosting Leeds specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Hull City
2
Draws
2
Leeds
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Leeds?
From 4 meetings on record, Hull City have won 0, Leeds have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Leeds last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2025, when Hull City 3-3 Leeds.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Leeds?
Leeds have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Leeds are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 50%, Leeds 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Hull City) and 68% (Leeds).
On the defensive side: Hull City keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Hull City have failed to score in 27% of games; Leeds in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Leeds away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Leeds?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Hull City's games and 64% of Leeds's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hull City vs Leeds usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Hull City's recent games and 68% of Leeds's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Leeds tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Leeds in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hull City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City and Leeds finished level at 0-0 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.56 xG and Leeds 1.49 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hull City fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Leeds landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 1.07 / defence 0.99 against Leeds attack 1.25 / defence 1.07, drawn from 52/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 39% | Draw 26% | Leeds 36%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 39%, Leeds 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Leeds's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Hull City arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Leeds (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.