Sunderland 0-1 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sunderland vs Cardiff fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Cardiff travel to Stadium of Light to take on Sunderland. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 September 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Sunderland have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sunderland have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sunderland's home record at Stadium of Light: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Championship appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cardiff stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Cardiff have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Cardiff have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Sunderland are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sunderland, 1 for Cardiff and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with Sunderland winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Sunderland trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Cardiff trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 60% versus Cardiff 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 58% | Cardiff 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 2.17 xG and Cardiff 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.277 / defence 1.070 | Cardiff attack 1.073 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.197. Sunderland carry an above-average attack strength of 1.277 — their λ of 2.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cardiff bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing Sunderland's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Sunderland games / 53 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 54% | Draw 23% | Cardiff 23%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Cardiff 4.35. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sunderland at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.55 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sunderland 90% | Cardiff 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Sep 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 54% | Draw 23% | Cardiff 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 67% | xG Sunderland 2.17 / Cardiff 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 1.277 / def 1.070 | Cardiff attack 1.073 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Cardiff xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Cardiff kick off?
Sunderland vs Cardiff kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Cardiff?
Sunderland 0 - 1 Cardiff.
Where is Sunderland vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Cardiff part of?
Sunderland vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 54% chance of winning, Cardiff a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Sunderland and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Cardiff?
Record (2 meetings): Sunderland 1W | Draws 0 | Cardiff 1W.
What form are Sunderland and Cardiff in?
Sunderland (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Cardiff (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sunderland's attack rating (1.28) and Cardiff's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 2.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cardiff's attack versus Sunderland's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
54%
1.84
23%
4.35
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Sunderland xG
Total xG
3.55
1.37
Cardiff xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
11%
8.79
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
3%
38.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.37 for Cardiff, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Cardiff?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sunderland's recent record stands at 22W 15D 16L from 53 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sunderland, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cardiff, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 26L across 53 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cardiff, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sunderland by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cardiff heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sunderland have managed 10W 8D 8L from 26 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cardiff's away record stands at 7W 4D 15L across 26 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sunderland are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.02 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sunderland have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Early Season
Cardiff
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 22W 15D 16L in their last 53 games (1.53 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 16W 11D 26L in their last 53 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Cardiff away?
Sunderland's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.46 PPG; Cardiff away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Cardiff been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Cardiff in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sunderland and Cardiff runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sunderland have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Sunderland's record when hosting Cardiff specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Sunderland
0
Draws
2
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Cardiff?
From 6 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 4, Cardiff have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Sunderland 2-1 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Cardiff?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sunderland see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 65%, Cardiff 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Sunderland) and 50% (Cardiff). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cardiff in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Cardiff?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Sunderland's recent matches and 42% of Cardiff's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sunderland vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Sunderland's matches and 50% of Cardiff's.
Do Sunderland and Cardiff tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cardiff defy the odds to beat Sunderland 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cardiff beat Sunderland 0-1 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 8, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 2.17 xG and Cardiff 1.37 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sunderland fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.28 / defence 1.07 against Cardiff attack 1.07 / defence 1.20, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 54% | Draw 23% | Cardiff 23%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Cardiff win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 58%, Cardiff 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Cardiff's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sunderland arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Cardiff winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward. Cardiff (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.